000
AXNT20 KNHC 301012
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Mar 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front extends from 31N59W to
20N71W. To the east of it, a pair of surface troughs are analyzed
along 48W and 52W. Rough to very rough seas prevail behind the 
front W of 64W and N of 29N, while rough seas will continue in the
vicinity of the troughs along 48W and N of 25N. In the eastern 
Atlantic, seas of 12 to 16 ft are extending E to around 33W, with 
period of 10-15 sec. Both swell areas should decay today with seas
falling below 12 ft tonight.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 09N134 and continues southwestward to 00N19W. The ITCZ 
extends from 00N19W to 03S39W. Scattered showers are evident 
within 200 nm on both sides of the boundaries.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure centered in the NE Gulf of Mexico 
continues to dominate the basin, maintaining fairly tranquil 
weather conditions. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are occurring
across most of the basin except E of 86W and N of 25N, where 
light to gentle variable winds prevail. Slight to moderate seas
prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure across the northern Gulf will 
shift E this weekend and support fresh E to SE winds across the 
western Gulf through Mon. A cold front will enter the western Gulf
on Tue. The front will extends from the Florida panhandle to the 
Bay of Campeche Wed. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are 
expected west of the front.  

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Windward Passage to E Honduras.
Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm north of the trough. 
Fresh to strong NE winds are noted in the Windward Passage and 
the lee of Cuba. Seas in the western Caribbean and Windward 
Passage are 3-6 ft. Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds 
are also present within 120 nm of NW Colombia. Seas in these 
waters are 3-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are evident elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region will
support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba and
across the Windward Passage through this evening. Winds and seas 
will then diminish by tonight. Strong trade winds and rough seas 
will pulse off the coast of Colombia and the southern coast of 
Hispaniola this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Significant Swell that is impacting the Atlantic waters. 

Outside of the swell event areas, the remainder of the basin is 
under the influence of surface ridges. A 1022 mb high pressure 
centered in near 31N37W and another 1022 mb high is analyzed near
29N77W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent
in these areas.
 
For the forecast W of 55W, the W-central Atlantic cold front  
will reach from 31N55W to the Mona Passage by tonight, then move 
east of the area early Sun. Strong winds and rough seas will 
follow the front. Winds and seas will decrease from west to east 
this weekend as high pressure builds eastward in the wake of the 
front.

$$
ERA