696 AXNT20 KNHC 272316 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Mar 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone to 04N17W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N22W crossing the Equator near 28W and continuing to the coast of Brazil near 05S35W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 04N between 20W and 32W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A slowly moving cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend in the northeast Gulf to 1009 mb low pressure near 25N94W to Merida, Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas follow the front. The pressure gradient between the front and a ridge east of Florida is sustaining fresh southeast to south winds ahead of the front south of 26N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Seas elsewhere are 6 to 8 ft, except for lower seas of 4 to 6 ft over the NE Gulf and 3 to 5 ft over the Bay of Campeche. A ridge follows the front and dominates the western Gulf producing mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front affecting mainly the waters N of 24N, and parts of north and central Florida. Some of the thunderstorms are strong to severe, capable of producing strong gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes and waterspouts. Areas of smoke are being observed over the southeastern and central Gulf sections. For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas that follow the front are forecast to persist through Thu, when the front is expected to move southeast of the basin. Winds and seas will further diminish Thu night into Fri as high pressure moves across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. This pattern will also support fresh E to SE winds across the western Gulf through Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong SE winds are noted over the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel with seas of 4 to 7 ft, ahead of a cold front that is currently moving across the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between high pressure that is present just north of the Bahamas and relatively weaker pressures in the Caribbean is leading to light to gentle winds over the central Caribbean. The southern portion of a central Atlantic cold front is identified as a weakening stationary front that reaches southwestward to the northern Leeward Islands. A pre-frontal trough reaches southwestward to just east of Martinique. A weak ridge extends across the Bahamas into Cuba and Hispaniola. Its associated pressure gradient is producing mostly gentle northerly winds behind the front across the northeast Caribbean. Large northerly swell reached the northeast Caribbean coasts and Passages during the overnight hours. Regional buoy observations are revealing seas of 6 to 9 ft through the passages, and 3 to 4 ft elsewhere across the eastern basin. Scattered to broken low clouds and isolated showers are noted over the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, a cold front currently moving into the southeast Gulf of Mexico will move into the Yucatan Channel early Thu. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow the front across the northwest Caribbean Thu and Thu night as the front reaches from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by early Fri. The winds and seas will diminish late Fri while the front weakens. High pressure building north of the region in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of western Cuba and across the Windward Passage Fri night. These winds and seas will diminish Sat, but strong winds and rough seas will pulse off the coast of Colombia and the southern coast of Hispaniola Sat and Sun as the high pressure settles north of the area east of the Bahamas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slow moving cold front extends from a 1007 mb gale center located north of the area near 32N59W southward to near 27N56W and to 21N58W, where it transitions to a weakening stationary front to the northern Leeward Islands. A weak trough is just east of the frontal boundary and runs from 21N57W to near Martinique. The pressure gradient between the front and a 1029 mb high pressure near 33N38W is producing an elongated band of strong to near gale-force southeast winds north of 27N between 50W and 57W, where seas are in the 12 to 16 ft range. An area of moderate to fresh NW winds is noted between a 1006 mb low pressure situated near 30N66W and a ridge E of Florida with axis along 75W. Large northerly swell generated across the northwest Atlantic during the past couple of days continues to propagate southward across the western Atlantic in the wake of the above mentioned cold front. An altimeter pass indicate seas of 8 to 12 ft roughly between 65W and 70W. This swell event is propagating through the Caribbean Passages at this time. The current swell is forecast to subside to below 12 ft by early this evening. Moderate northerly swell will continue to impact the waters west of 60W tonight through Thu night. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence of a high pressure center of 1029 mb that is centered to the southwest of the Azores near 33N38W. Fresh to strong anticyclonic flow is occurring south of the associated ridge and E of the above mentioned cold front. Seas are 8 to 11 ft within these winds based on altimeter data. Rough to very rough seas surrounds the Madeira Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds are over the tropical Atlantic with seas of 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the low pressure S of Bermuda located near 32N59W will drift SE and dissipate through Thu. An area of strong to near gale force winds and rough seas active to the NE of the low will gradually shift to the E of 55W through Thu accordingly. Farther west, a cold front will move off the NE Florida coast early Thu, and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by early Fri, from 31N55W to the Mona Passage by early Sat, then move E of the area on Sun. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front, then diminish from west to east as high pressure builds eastward along roughly 29N in the wake of the front. $$ GR