000 AXNT20 KNHC 271720 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Mar 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A slow moving cold front extends from a 1007 mb gale low north of the area near 31N59W southward to 31N59W and continues to 26N58W and to 23N58W, where it transitions to a weakening stationary front to the northern Leeward Islands. A weak trough is just east of the frontal boundary from near 26N56W to 20N58W extending southwestward to just east of Martinique. The pressure gradient is producing an elongated band of strong to gale-force southeast winds. The gale- force winds are occurring north of 27N between 54W and 57W, with seas of 12 to 16 ft. The gale-force winds are forecast to lift north of 31N this afternoon, and be replaced by strong to near gale southeast winds through Fri. Western Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large northerly swell generated across the northwest Atlantic during the past couple of days continues to propagate southward across the western Atlantic in the wake of the above mentioned cold front that extends from 31N59W to the northern Leeward Islands. This large swell is located north of 24N west of the front to 72W. This is propagating through the Caribbean Passages at this time. An associated 1006 mb low pressure center near 30N66W will move southeastward during the next 48 hours and help to maintain the development of northerly swell moving towards the northeast Caribbean. The current swell is forecast to subside to below 12 ft by early this evening. Moderate northerly swell will continue to impact the area waters west of 60W tonight through Thu night. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal border areas of Guinea and Sierra Leone to 04N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01N22W crossing the Equator near 23W and continuing to 06S25W to 08S32W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from the Equator to 04N between 30W-35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is analyzed from near Apalachicola southwestward to low pressure of 1009 mb near 24N90W. A cold front extends from the low to the eastern Bay of Campeche and to inland Mexico near Ciudad del Carmen. A weakening reinforcing cold front is following in closely behind the aforementioned front, and extends from near Destin, Florida southwestward to 25N93W and west- northwest to inland Texas at 25N98W. Fresh north to northeast winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are behind the second front. The pressure gradient between the leading front and a high pressure ridge east of Florida is sustaining fresh southeast to south winds east of the front south of 26N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Seas elsewhere are 6 to 8 ft, except for lower seas of 4 to 6 ft over the NE Gulf and 3 to 5 ft over the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows quite an impressive large area of numerous showers and thunderstorms within 180 nm southeast of the leading front north of 27N and within 90 nm southeast of the same front from 25N to 27N. Some of the thunderstorms are strong to severe, capable of producing strong gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes and waterspouts. Areas of smoke are being observed over the southeastern and central Gulf sections. For the forecast, the weakening reinforcing cold front will dissipate this afternoon. Fresh to strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the leading front across the Gulf as it moves southeast of the basin by late Thu. Looking ahead, high pressure will move across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front Thu night through Fri night, supporting fresh E to SE winds across the western Gulf through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong SE winds are noted over the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel with seas of 5 to 8 ft, ahead of a cold front that is currently moving across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between high pressure that is present just north of the Bahamas and relatively weaker pressures in the Caribbean is leading to light to gentle winds over the central Caribbean. The southern portion of a central Atlantic cold front is identified as a weakening stationary front that reaches southwestward to the northern Leeward Islands. A pre-frontal trough reaches southwestward to just east of Martinique. A narrow ridge extends from just east of the northwest Bahamas to the central Bahamas. Its associated gradient is producing mostly gentle northerly winds behind the front across the northeast Caribbean. Large northerly swell reached the northeast Caribbean coasts and Passages during the overnight hours. Regional buoy observations are revealing seas of 6 to 9 ft through the area passages, and 3 to 4 ft elsewhere across the eastern basin. Scattered to broken low clouds and isolated showers are along and near the weakening stationary front. These showers are spreading southwestward toward the far northeastern Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds over the northwest Caribbean will diminish this afternoon and tonight, as a cold front moves southeastward across the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong N winds and large swell will follow the front as it moves in through the Yucatan Channel Thu. The front will continue to move SE and reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu evening, and from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras Fri morning, as wind and seas begin to diminish behind the front. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong northeast winds across the Windward Passage Fri night through late Sat, as the front stalls from central Hispaniola to northeast Nicaragua. Expect fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean Sun as high pressure builds north of the region and to the east of the northern Bahamas in the wake of the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Large northerly swell dominates the Western Atlantic between the Bahamas and 59W. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information on this event and for details relating to gale-force winds east of a central Atlantic cold front. A cold front extends from a 1007 mb gale low north of the area near 31N59W southward to 31N59W, and continues to 26N58W and to 23N58W, where it transitions to a weakening stationary front to the northern Leeward Islands. Satellite imagery shows a large area of numerous showers and thunderstorms east of the trough and frontal boundary from 20N to 25N between 47W and 52W and also north of 25N between 52W and 55W. A weak trough is just east of the frontal boundary from near 26N56W to 20N58W extending southwestward to just east of Martinique. Scattered to broken low clouds, with isolated showers are near both the weakening stationary front and weak trough. High pressure is building in behind the front with a ridge extending southward toward the SE Bahamas, and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are N of 27N and west of the front to 72W where seas are 12 to 16 ft in north swell. Elsewhere west of the front, light to gentle winds are noted, with the exception of moderate southeast winds W of 78W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in northeast swell east and north of the Bahamas. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast areas are under the influence of a high pressure center of 1029 mb that is centered to the southwest of the Azores near 33N40W. Fresh to strong anticyclonic flow is occurring south of the associated ridge and extends to along the above mentioned cold front. Seas are 8 to 11 ft across the trade wind zone north of about 14N and east of 50W. Seas of 11 to 13 ft are along and northeast of the front. Rough to very rough seas surrounds the Madeira Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds are over the tropical Atlantic south of 15N, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds north of 26N, and rough seas and rough to very rough seas accompany a cold front that extends from near 31N59W southward to 31N59W and continues to 26N58W and to 23N58W, where it transitions to a weakening stationary front to the northern Leeward Islands. The front will move slowly eastward and weaken through midweek, as associated low pressure currently southwest of Bermuda moves southeastward to near 29N61W this afternoon, and to near 26N58W by early Thu while weakening. The front will dissipate through late Fri as the low pressure stalls, weakens, and lifts northward again to the east of Bermuda through Sat, accompanied by strong winds and rough to very rough seas to its northeast. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow a new cold front that will move off the northeast coast of Florida Thu, reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba Fri morning, and from 31N55W to central Hispaniola Sat morning. Looking ahead, the front will stall and weaken from near 31N55W to the Leeward Islands by late Sun. Winds and seas will diminish over most areas west of the front as high pressure builds along 27N in the wake of the front. $$ Aguirre