000 AXNT20 KNHC 262311 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Mar 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Swell Event: Large swell generated by a a 1004 mb low pressure system located north of the area near 34N66W is propagating southward through the waters north of about 27N and between 64W and 76W. Seas produced by this swell are in the range of 12 to 16 ft based on altimeter data. The low pressure will move slowly south- southeast and is expected to cross into the Atlantic forecast waters south of 31N on Wed, then gradually becomes stationary near 26N60W on Thu while dissipating. Large north to northeast swell will gradually subside west of 70W through on Wed, but persist east of 70W through Fri as the swell moves eastward. Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the Guinea/Sierra Leone border and continues southwestward to near 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 04N17W to the equator at 26W and to the coast of Brazil near 05S35W. Most of the convective activity is south of the Equator. A small are of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 03N between 22W and 25W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the western Florida panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche followed y another cold front that stretches from SE Louisiana to the coast of Texas near Corpus Christi. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are behind the first front. The pressure gradient between this front and high pressure east of Florida is sustaining fresh to strong SE to S winds east of the front with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Lower seas of 4 to 6 ft are over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows a line of scattered showers and thunderstorms within 60 nm east of the first front north of 28N. For the forecast, the strong winds and rough seas associated with the front over mainly the north-central and northeast Gulf will subside late this evening. The second cold front over the NW Gulf will stall and dissipate through mid-week. Expect fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds along building seas following the first front as it moves across the south-central and southeast Gulf Thu into Fri, with seas becoming rough near the Yucatan Channel by Thu night. Winds and seas will diminish again across the Gulf into Sat as the high pressure moves eastward across the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh SE return flow over the northwest Gulf by late Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong SE winds are noted over the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel with seas of 6 to 8 ft. These winds are ahead of a cold front currently moving across the central Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between high pressure that is present just north of the Bahamas and relatively weaker pressures in the Caribbean is leading to light to gentle winds over the central Caribbean. Latest available ASCAT data indicate generally gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles. These winds are due to the gradient found on the southwestern periphery of broad high pressure that is controlling the weather regime of the eastern and central Atlantic. Latest buoy and altimeter satellite data indicate seas of 6 to 8 ft in the northwestern Caribbean and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, except for lower seas of 3 to 5 ft over the central Caribbean. A cold front from the Atlantic reaches the Leeward Islands generating mostly cloudy skies and shower activity. Patches of low level clouds, with embedded showers, are also noted over the NE Caribbean. For the forecast, the fresh to strong SE winds over the northwest Caribbean will diminish through Wed, as the aforementioned cold front moves SE into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong N winds and large swell will follow the front as it moves through the Yucatan Channel Thu. The front will continue to move SE and reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu evening, and from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras Fri morning as wind and seas diminish across the northwest Caribbean. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage by Sat morning, as the front stalls from central Hispaniola to northeast Nicaragua. Expect fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean Sun as high pressure builds north of the region and to east of the northern Bahamas in the wake of the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A northerly swell event dominates the Western Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information. A cold front is analyzed from 31N60W to the Leeward Islands where the front is generating mostly cloudy skies and shower activity. High pressure is building in behind the front with a ridge extending southward toward the Bahamas, Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are N of 28N and west of the front to 72W where seas are 12 to 16 ft in north swell. Elsewhere west of the front, light to gentle winds are noted, with the exception of moderate SE winds W of 78W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in northeast swell east and north of the Bahamas. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a high pressure center of 1032 mb located W of the Azores near 36N38W. Fresh to strong anticyclonic flow is seen on scatterometer data N of 20N and E of the above mentioned cold front with seas of seas of 8 to 11 ft. Rough to very rough seas surrounds the Madeira Islands. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds dominate the tropical Atlantic with seas of 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will move eastward and weaken through Wed as the associated low pressure currently NW of Bermuda moves SE to near 29N60W Wed, and to near 26N58W Thu. The attendant front will dissipate through late Fri as the low pressure weakens and shifts northward again to the E of Bermuda through Sat, accompanied by strong SE winds and rough to very rough seas. Looking ahead, fresh to strong wind and rough seas will follow a new cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast Thu, reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba Fri morning, and from near 31N55W to central Hispaniola Sat morning. the front will stall and weaken from 31N55W to the Leeward Islands by late Sun. Winds and seas will diminish in most areas west of the front as high pressure builds along 27N in the wake of the front. $$ GR