245 AXNT20 KNHC 261045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Mar 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Swell Event: Large swell, generated by a deepening low pressure system located N of Bermuda, is propagating southward into the Atlantic forecast waters, producing seas to 12 to 19 ft roughly N of 26N between 64W and 75W. This swell event will continue into tonight, with seas expected to peak this morning near 20 ft along 31N. The low pressure will move slowly S-SE and weaken, crossing into the Atlantic forecast region Tue and gradually becoming stationary near 26N60W on Thu, then dissipating. Large NE swell W of 70W will persist through Wed morning before gradually subsiding. Large NW to N swell will build southward across the waters E of 70W through tonight, then slowly subside Wed through Thu. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida and a low pressure system over Texas and the western Gulf supports southerly winds reaching near gale-force over the north- central Gulf and northeast Gulf, with frequent gusts to 40 kt and higher. Rough to very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft prevail across this area. These winds will diminish quickly today through tonight ahead of the advancing cold front moving across the NW Gulf. Gale force gusts are expected to end this morning. South Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and two surface troughs, one over eastern Mexico and the other one over Yucatan Peninsula, and an approaching cold front off the Texas coast are supporting southerly gale force winds over the central Bay of Campeche, between 94W and 95W. Seas in the area of this winds have built to 11 ft overnight. As the cold front continues to progress SE this morning, the pressure gradient will relax. Therefore, winds will decrease to strong this morning. Seas will subside below 8 ft my Tue mid morning. Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea/Sierra Leone border and continues southwestward to near 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 00N28W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found S of 05.5N between 13W and 49W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the north-central and northeast Gulf, and for the southern Gulf of Mexico. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information. A cold front has moved off the coast of Texas overnight and reaches from the central southeast Louisiana coast to near Tampico, Mexico. Overnight scatterometer data revealed moderate to fresh NW to N winds behind the cold front. A ridge over the eastern U.S. extends southwestward across Florida and the extreme NE Gulf while a surface trough is along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern supports fresh to strong SE to S winds across most of the waters E of 91W, with gale-force gusts across the north-central Gulf, and southerly gales over the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 8 to 14 ft N of 22N between 84W and 96W, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere, except across the offshore waters of W Florida, and W of the Yucatan peninsula where seas are generally 3 to 3 ft. Scattered light to moderate convection is along and within 150 nm ahead of the front from 26N into SE Louisiana. For the forecast, near gale-force S to SE winds and rough seas across the north-central and northeast Gulf will quickly diminish today, ahead of a cold front moving across the NW Gulf. The front will move southeastward and briefly stall from the Florida Panhandle to western Bay of Campeche this evening through Wed, then will move southeast again and exit the Gulf by early Thu evening. Expect fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas over mainly the south-central and southeast Gulf behind the front Thu and Fri, as high pressure builds across the basin and low pressure deepens off the Carolinas. Winds and seas will diminish again across the Gulf into Sat as the high pressure moves eastward across the northern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong E to SE winds persist over the northwest Caribbean W of 83W, between high pressure just north of the Bahamas and a frontal trough extending from Haiti across Jamaica into NE Honduras. Light to gentle winds are noted over the central Caribbean while gentle to moderate E to SE winds are seen over the eastern Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles, on the SW periphery of a strong high pressure system that dominates most of the east and central Atlantic. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across the NW Caribbean, with the highest seas in the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 2 to 5 ft are elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds over the northwest Caribbean will diminish across all but the Gulf of Honduras this afternoon through tonight, as a cold front moves SE into the central Gulf of Mexico. Winds across NW portions will diminish to moderate to locally fresh late Wed as the cold front reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The front will then move through the Yucatan Channel and into the NW Caribbean Thu afternoon and evening, reach from the Windward Passage to NE Honduras Fri evening, and dissipate across the NE Caribbean Islands late Sat. Large N swell will move into the Atlantic Passages of the NE and E Caribbean late today and persist through early Thu before subsiding. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A northerly swell event dominates the Western Atlantic NE through E of the Bahamas. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information. A cold front has slowed its forward motion across the Atlantic overnight, and extends from 31N62W to the Mona Passage. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is depicted within 180 nm E of the front, to the north of 20N. A pre-frontal trough runs from 29N60W to the Virgin Islands. A ridge is noted behind the front and extends from the eastern seaboard of the U.S. southward across Florida and the Bahamas into western Cuba. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a strong high pressure center of 1034 mb located W of the Azores near 38N39W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are in the wake of the front N of 29N with seas of 10 to 19 ft N and E of the Bahamas. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong SE winds are found N of 25N with seas 9 to 11 ft. Similar wind speeds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are N of 20N under the influence of the aforementioned strong high pressure across the NE Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds dominate the tropical Atlantic with seas of 5 to 9 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will will continue moving E-SE, and weaken considerably as it moves across the regional Atlantic E of 60W and adjacent NE Caribbean waters through early Wed. Associated low pressure N of Bermuda will begin to move slowly S-SE and weaken today, crossing into the area Atlantic waters late Tue and gradually becoming stationary near 26N60W on Thu, then dissipating. A narrow high pressure ridge will build southward into the Bahamas through Wed leading to diminishing winds W of the front. Large N to NE swell will continue to build southward, W of 70W, through early Wed before gradually subsiding. Large NW to N swell will build southward across the waters E of 70W through early Wed, then slowly subside Wed through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds and large seas will persist across the far NE waters through Thu. A new cold front will enter the NW waters Thu and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Fri afternoon, and from 31N55W to central Hispaniola by Sat morning. $$ Stripling