000 AXNT20 KNHC 251052 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Mar 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Large N Swell: Fresh to strong N to NE winds prevail across the Atlantic waters N of the Bahamas and W of 70W this morning. Associated large N to NE swell is producing seas of 12 to 16 ft across this area, and even higher in the gulfstream, where evening altimeter data showed seas to 20 ft offshore of Daytona Beach. This large swell and rough to very rough seas will continue to affect the SW N Atlantic waters N of 26N and W of 65W through early Wed before seas subside below 12 ft. Currently, low pressure is deepening to the NW of Bermuda, with an associated cold front extending through 31N63W to 26N63W to the Windward Passage. This storm-force low center will begin to move slowly S-SE this afternoon, crossing into the area Atlantic waters Tue and gradually weaken as it becomes stationary near 26N61W on Thu. Strong to gale- force N to NE winds occurring on the western side of this low will continue to generate large N to NE swell with seas above 12 ft covering much of the area between 64W and 80W today. Large northerly swell generated across the western semicircle of this low will maintain a large area of seas above 12 ft through Tue night, N of 26N between 64W and 74W. Seas could peak as high as 20 ft along 31N70W tonight. Seas will then begin to slowly diminish across the Atlantic waters Thu. Otherwise, fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front will continue to affect the NE offshore waters to Wed evening along with rough seas to 12 ft. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern U.S. and a low pressure system currently located near SE Colorado will produce strong SE to S winds to around 30 kt across the northern Gulf today through this evening, with frequent gusts to gale-force winds over the N central and NE Gulf beginning this morning. Seas will build to 12 ft by afternoon across this area. As the low continues its track NE, the pressure gradient will begin to relax tonight. Wind gusts to gale will decrease by Tuesday morning, while seas subside bellow 8 ft by Tuesday evening. Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits western Africa and enters the Atlantic near 09N13.5W then continues SW to 05N19W to 0.5N32W. The ITCZ extends from 0.5N32W to the coast of Brazil near 01.5S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 05N to beyond the Equator, between 07W and 30W, and from 03N to 02S between 30W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information about the Gale Warning over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridging over the eastern U.S. extends southwestward to the NE Gulf, while low pressure associated with the next frontal boundary dominates the western half basin. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong SE to S winds across all but the SE portions. Seas have built to 7 to 11 ft across most of the northern Gulf per recent observations. For the forecast, high pressure extending into the NE Gulf will shift eastward today, allowing for fresh to strong SE to S winds to expand across all but the SE Gulf. Frequent gusts to gale-force will persist across north central and northeast portions through this evening. A new cold front will enter the NW Gulf this evening, reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to near Veracruz, Mexico Tue morning, then drift E and stall from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche Wed. Fresh to strong N winds are briefly expected Tue behind the front over the W and SW Gulf. The front will then begin to move SE early Thu and move SE of the basin Thu evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A front has become nearly stationary from the Windward Passage into NE Nicaragua. Winds behind the front over the NW Caribbean have veered overnight, and are moderate to fresh from the E to E-SE, except locally strong in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas west of the front are 3-5 ft. The remainder Caribbean is under the influence of light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas, except for the far SE basin where trade winds are moderate to locally fresh and seas 5 to 6 ft. Scattered showers are across the Windward Passage and along the SE coast of the Dominican Republic. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will drift E and dissipate from Hispaniola to NE Nicaragua late today. Winds behind the front will veer to the SE today and become fresh to strong over the western Caribbean tonight through Tue, ahead of the next frontal system to enter the Gulf of Mexico. This next cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel and into the NW Caribbean Thu night. Large N swell will reach the Atlantic Passages of the NE and E Caribbean late Tue and persist through early Thu before subsiding. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain well below normal through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the Western Atlantic Large N Swell. Aside from the area of winds and seas in the Special Features, the remaining subtropical Atlantic to the east is under the influence of a broad surface ridge, extending from 1037 mb high pressure near 42N38W to the northern Leeward Islands. The associated pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and rough seas in the 8-11 ft range over the waters E of 50W. Fresh to strong S to SE winds prevail east of the cold front to 55W, and north of 25N. Seas are 8 to 12 ft across this area. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm E of the front to the north of 24N, while scattered moderate convection is elsewhere along the front into the NE Caribbean. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move eastward and reach from 31N62W to W Hispaniola by this evening, then weaken considerably as it moves E-SE across the regional Atlantic E of 60W and adjacent NE Caribbean waters through Tue night. Associated low pressure NW of Bermuda will deepen today, then begin to move slowly S-SE and weaken, crossing into the area Atlantic waters Tue and gradually becoming stationary near 25N61W on Thu, then dissipating. Strong N to NE winds and large NE to N swell will continue to spread southward behind the front today before a narrow high pressure ridge builds southward into the Bahamas Mon night through Wed. Large NE swell will build southward, W of 70W, through Mon and persist through Wed before gradually subsiding. Large NW to N swell will build southward across the waters E of 70W through Tue, then slowly subside Wed through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds and large seas will persist across the far NE waters through Thu. $$ Stripling