000 AXNT20 KNHC 250454 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Mar 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0454 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Large N Swell: Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough to very rough seas to 16 ft will continue to affect the SW N Atlantic waters N of 26N through Mon along a pair of fronts. By Mon evening, a low connected to the reinforcing front will deepen overnight and Mon, then begin to move slowly S-SE and weaken, crossing into the area Atlantic waters Tue and gradually becoming stationary near 26N61W on Thu. Strong to gale- force N to NE winds occurring on the western side of this low will continue to generate large N to NE swell with seas above 12 ft covering much of the area between 69W and 80W tonight. Large northerly swell generated across the western semicircle of this low will maintain a large area of seas above 12 ft through Tue night, N of 26N between 64W and 74W. Seas could peak as high as 20 ft along 31N70W on Mon night. Seas will then begin to slowly diminish across the Atlantic waters Thu. Otherwise, fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front will continue to affect the NE offshore waters to Wed evening along with rough seas to 12 ft. NE Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a high pressure over the eastern U.S. and a low pressure system currently located near SE Colorado will produce frequent SE wind gust to gale force winds over the NE Gulf beginning Monday morning. Seas will build to 12 ft by Monday night within the area of the wind gust to gale force. As the low continues its track NE, the pressure gradient will begin to relax, therefore, wind gust to gale will decrease by Tuesday morning. While seas will subside bellow 8 ft by Tuesday late afternoon. Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W then continues SW to 04N19W to 02N27W. The ITCZ extends from 02N27W to 00N36W and to the coast of Brazil near 01N46W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm S of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough axis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information about the Gale Warning over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Surface ridging over the eastern U.S. extends to the eastern half of the Gulf while low pressure associated with the next frontal boundary dominates the western half basin. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh E winds E of 90W and fresh to locally strong SE winds W of 90W. Seas are 4 to 5 ft, except 5-7 ft W of 91W. Light showers are depicted along the coast of Texas and Louisiana For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S. extends into the NE Gulf tonight, and will shift eastward through Mon, allowing for fresh to strong SE to S winds across the western Gulf to expand across all but the SE Gulf by morning. A new cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Mon evening, reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to near Veracruz, Mexico Tue morning, then drift E and stall from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche Wed night. Fresh to strong N winds are briefly expected Tue behind the front over the W and SW Gulf. The front will then move SE of the basin Thu afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba SW into NE Nicaragua. Northerly winds behind the front over the NW Caribbean are gentle to moderate with 3-5 ft seas. The remainder Caribbean is under the influence of light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas, except for the far SE basin where trade winds are moderate to locally fresh and seas to 5 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will drift E and dissipate from Hispaniola to NE Nicaragua on Mon. Northerly winds behind the front will veer to the SE on Mon and become fresh to strong over the western Caribbean late Mon through Tue, ahead of the next frontal system entering the Gulf of Mexico, and while Atlantic high pressure persists across the U.S. middle Atlantic coast. Large N swell will reach the Atlantic Passages of the NE and E Caribbean late Tue and persist through early Thu. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain well below normal through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the Western Atlantic Large N Swell. Aside from the area in the Special Features, the remaining subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface ridge extending to 20N and supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and rough seas in the 8-11 ft over the waters E of 50W. Seas of 11-12 ft are N of 26N and E of 27W. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N65W to 24N69W then southwestward across eastern Cuba. The front will move eastward and reach from 31N63W to NW Hispaniola by Mon afternoon, then weaken considerably as it moves E-SE across the regional Atlantic and adjacent NE Caribbean waters through Tue night. Associated low pressure NW of Bermuda will deepen overnight and Mon, then begin to move slowly S-SE and weaken, crossing into the area Atlantic waters Tue and gradually becoming stationary near 26N61W on Thu. Strong to near gale- force NE winds and large NE to N swell will spread in behind the front tonight before a narrow high pressure ridge builds southward into the Bahamas Mon night through Wed. Large NE swell will build southward, W of 70W, tonight through Mon and persist through Wed before gradually subsiding. Large NW to N swell will build southward across the waters E of 70W overnight through Tue, then slowly subside Tue night through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds and large seas will persist across the far NE waters through Thu. $$ KRV