000 AXNT20 KNHC 240518 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Mar 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0424 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force S to SE winds continue north of 30N between 74W and 71W, ahead of a cold front that extends from 31N75W to central Cuba. Seas in excess of 12 ft are currently analyzed north of 27N between 70W and 75W with peak seas to 15 ft. A reinforcing cold front will enter the western Atlantic tonight. As both fronts continue advancing east, the gales will shift eastward and increase in areal coverage through tomorrow. Gales to 40 kt are forecast north of 29N between 66W and 68W Sun morning. Seas greater than 12 ft are forecast within waters north of 27N between 64W and 80W on Sunday, with peak seas to 17 ft. By Sunday night, gales are forecast to end. However, large N swell will build and maintain seas to 19 ft across the western Atlantic through early this week. Mariners should monitor all of the above hazardous marine conditions and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. Cuba and Bahamas Heavy Rainfall: A line of heavy showers and strong tstorms associated with the leading cold front in the section above is impacting central Cuba, central and eastern Bahamas and its adjacent waters. These thunderstorms are capable of producing heavy downpours with low visibility, frequent gale- force or stronger wind gusts, and possible waterspouts. Over land, heavy rainfall may lead to flooding. As the frontal system exits the area tonight, conditions will improve. Please refer to your local NWS Weather Forecast Office at website: https://www.weather.gov for the latest local rainfall information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W then continues SW to 05N19W to 03S27W. The ITCZ extends from 03S27W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 07N between 12W and 21W, and from 04S to 02N between 20W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A reinforcing secondary cold front extends from SW Florida to the northern Yucatan Peninsula and the south Gulf waters. Fresh to strong NW to N winds follow the front E of 91W with rough seas to 9 ft. West of 91W, winds and seas are moderate. For the forecast, a cold front has moved SE into the NW Caribbean, while a reinforcing secondary front extends from SW Florida to the northern Yucatan. The second front will also move SE of the basin overnight. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail E of 90W through morning before diminishing. High pressure in the wake of the front will quickly shift eastward Sun night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf Sun, ahead of the next cold front. Strong southerly winds will then shift to the central and eastern Gulf early Mon through Mon night as the new cold front enters the western Gulf early Mon night. Fresh to strong N winds are briefly expected Tue behind the front over the W and SW Gulf. The front will slow and weaken mid-week from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends through the central Bahamas across western Cuba along 80W and into the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N. While a surface trough is ahead of the cold front. Numerous strong convection is ongoing along the front S of Cuba. Therefore expect higher winds and seas across the area. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are occurring across the far NW Caribbean associated with the tail of a cold front moving across the area. Moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the front across the remainder NW Caribbean with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure over the NW Atlantic extending a surface ridge southwestward to just east of the Bahamas, is sustaining moderate to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Seas are 4-7 ft across the central and eastern basin. For the forecast, western Atlantic surface ridging will shift E- NE through Mon. A cold front extending through the central Bahamas across western Cuba along 80W and into the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N will move SE and reach from east-central Cuba to the NE coast of Honduras by Sun morning, then stall and dissipate from NW Hispaniola to NE Nicaragua on Mon. Strong thunderstorms along the front S of Cuba will shift eastward through morning. Northerly winds behind the front through Sun will veer to the SE Mon and become fresh to strong over the western Caribbean late Mon through Tue, ahead of the next frontal system entering the Gulf of Mexico. Large N swell will reach the Atlantic Passages of the NE and E Caribbean late Tue and persist through early Thu. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain well below normal through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the Gale Warning and Cuba and Bahamas Heavy Rainfall. Aside from the area in the Special Features, the remaining subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface ridge that is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds over the far E Atlantic and easterly winds of the same magnitude over the central Atlantic waters. Rough seas between 8 to 13 ft are E of 37W while rough seas to 10 ft are ahead of the front in the Special Features reaching as far as 61W. For the forecast W of 55W, strong to gale-force S winds occurring N of 29N and W of 70W will shift slowly eastward through Sun, ahead of a cold front that currently extends from 31N75W to Cuba near 23N80W. Strong thunderstorms with frequent gusts to gale-force and frequent lightning are expected along the front across the Bahamas and northeastward through Sunday morning. The front will reach from near 31N69W to east-central Cuba on Sun morning, reach from 31N65W to the Windward Passage by Mon morning, then weaken considerably as it moves SE across the Atlantic and adjacent NE Caribbean waters through Tue night. Strong to near gale-force NE winds and large NE to N swell will follow the front early Sun through Mon. Low pressure will develop NW of Bermuda Tue and move SE and weaken across the area waters through Thu. Large N to NW swell will spread across the waters E of 70W, and NE swell W of 70W, early Tue through Wed. $$ KRV