000 AXNT20 KNHC 240009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Mar 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force S to SE winds continue north of 30N between 74W and 68W, ahead of a cold front that extends from 31N75W to the Straits of Florida. Seas in excess of 12 ft are currently analyzed north of 27N between 69W and 75W with peak seas to 15 ft. A reinforcing cold front will enter the western Atlantic this evening. As both fronts continue advancing east, the gales will shift eastward and increase in areal coverage through tomorrow. Gales to 40 kt are forecast north of 29N between 65W and 69W Sun morning. Seas greater than 12 ft are forecast within waters north of 28N between 64W and 80W on Sunday, with peak seas to 17 ft. By Sunday evening, gales are forecast to end. However, large N swell will build and maintain seas to 20 ft across the western Atlantic through early this week. Mariners should monitor all of the above hazardous marine conditions and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. Cuba and Bahamas Heavy Rainfall: A line of heavy showers and strong tstorms associated with the leading cold front in the section above is impacting central Cuba, central Bahamas and its adjacent waters. These thunderstorms are capable of producing heavy downpours with low visibility, frequent gale-force or stronger wind gusts, and possible waterspouts. Over land, heavy rainfall may lead to flooding. As the frontal system exits the area tonight, conditions will improve. Please refer to your local NWS Weather Forecast Office at website: https://www.weather.gov for the latest local rainfall information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N15W then continues SW to 05N20W to 02S26W. The ITCZ extends from 02S26W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 09N between 10W and 28W, and from 10S to 03N between 17W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... The tail of a cold front currently over the SW Atlantic waters reaches the Florida Straits. A second cold front extends from Cedar Key, Florida SW to 23N90W to just N of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong NW winds follow the front E of 90W with rough seas to 9 ft. West of 90W, winds and seas are moderate. For the forecast, both fronts will exit the basin tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds will spill across the basin well behind the front through Sun. High pressure in the wake of the front will quickly shift eastward Sun night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf Sun, ahead of the next cold front. Strong southerly winds will then shift to the central and eastern Gulf early Mon through Mon night as the new cold front enters the western Gulf Mon night. Fresh to strong N winds are briefly expected Tue behind the front over the W Gulf of Mexico. The front will slow and weaken mid-week from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong S winds are occurring across the far NW Caribbean associated with the tail of a cold front moving across the area. Moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the front across the remainder NW Caribbean with seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure over the NW Atlantic extending a surface ridge southwestward to just east of the Bahamas, is sustaining moderate to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Seas are 4-7 ft across the central and eastern basin. For the forecast, surface ridging will shift E-NE through Mon. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will pulse across the Yucatan Channel tonight. A cold front will reach from central Cuba to near the Honduras-Nicaragua border Sun morning, then stall and dissipate from Hispaniola to NE Nicaragua on Mon. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop again over the western Caribbean late Mon through Tue, ahead of the next frontal system entering the Gulf of Mexico. Large N swell will reach the Atlantic Passages of the NE and E Caribbean late Tue and persist through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the Gale Warning. Aside from the area in the Special Features, the remaining subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface ridge that is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds over the far E Atlantic and easterly winds of the same magnitude over the central Atlantic waters. Rough seas between 8 to 12 ft are E of 42W while rough seas to 10 ft are ahead of the front in the Special Features reaching as far as 50W. For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic surface ridge will shift E-NE and strengthen through Mon. Strong to gale-force SE to S winds occurring N of the Bahamas and W of 74W will shift slowly eastward through Sun, ahead of the cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with frequent gusts to gale-force and frequent lightning are expected across the Bahamas through tonight. The front will reach from near 31N70W to central Cuba on Sun morning, reach from 31N65W to the Windward Passage by Mon morning, then weaken considerably as it moves SE across the Atlantic and adjacent NE Caribbean waters through Tue night. Strong to near gale-force NE winds and large NE to N swell will follow the front early Sun through Mon. Low pressure will develop NW of Bermuda Tue and drift SE and weaken across the area waters through Wed. Large N to NW swell will spread across the waters E of 70W early Tue through mid week. $$ Ramos