000 AXNT20 KNHC 231725 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Mar 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force S to SE winds continue north of 30N between 73W and 76W, ahead of a cold front that extends from 31N78W to Miami, Florida. Seas in excess of 12 ft are currently analyzed north of 27N between 70W and 80W with seas to 15 ft. A reinforcing cold front will enter the western Atlantic later today. As both fronts continue advancing east, the gales will shift eastward and increase in areal coverage through tomorrow. Gales to 40 kt are forecast north of 29N between 65W and 69W Sun morning. Seas greater than 12 ft are forecast within waters north of 28N between 64W and 80W on Sunday, with peak seas to 17 ft. By Sunday evening, gales are forecast to end. However, large N swell will build and maintain seas to 20 ft across the western Atlantic through early this week. Mariners should monitor all of the above hazardous marine conditions and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. South Florida, Cuba, and Bahamas Heavy Rainfall: Numerous moderate convection and strong tstorms are impacting South Florida, the Florida Keys, western Cuba, northern Bahamas and adjacent waters including the Florida Straits.Thunderstorms are capable of producing heavy downpours with low visibility, frequent gale-force or stronger wind gusts, and possible waterspouts. Over land, heavy rainfall may lead to flooding. As the frontal system exits the area today and tonight, dry conditions will prevail. Please refer to your local NWS Weather Forecast Office at website: https://www.weather.gov for the latest local rainfall information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N15W then continues to 02S26W. The ITCZ extends from 02S26W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04S to 04N between 23W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stalled front is along the Florida Keys, producing numerous moderate to strong convection across the Keys and within the Florida Straits. A reinforcing cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend across the Gulf to Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong NW winds are analyzed behind the front, and fresh to strong S winds are ahead of the front. Seas are 5-8 ft across most of the Gulf, with isolated peak seas to 9 ft near 26N90W. In the Bay of Campeche, seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, the broad area of deep-layered low pressure across the north central and northeast Gulf will move NE across northern Florida and the SE U.S. today. The cold front will exit the basin to the SE by tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds will spill across the basin well behind the front today. High pressure in the wake of the front will quickly shift eastward late Sat night through Sun night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf Sun, ahead of the next cold front. Strong southerly winds will then shift to the central and eastern Gulf early Mon through Mon night as the new cold front enters the western Gulf Mon night. Fresh to strong N winds are briefly expected Tue behind the front over the W Gulf of Mexico. The front will slow and weaken mid- week from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong S winds are occurring across the northwest Caribbean as broad low pressure moves across Florida. Elsewhere, high pressure over the NW Atlantic extends a surface ridge southwestward to the central Bahamas, sustaining moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin. For the forecast, atlantic high pressure centered NE of Bermuda will shift E-NE through Mon. Fresh to strong SE to S winds occurring across the northwest Caribbean and Yucatan Channel will gradually diminish today as a Gulf of Mexico front reaches the Yucatan Channel this afternoon. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to near the Honduras-Nicaragua border Sun morning, then stall and dissipate from Hispaniola to NE Nicaragua on Mon. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop again over the western Caribbean late Mon through Tue, ahead of the next frontal system entering the Gulf of Mexico. Large N swell will reach the Atlantic Passages of the NE and E Caribbean late Tue and persist through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the Gale Warning. Numerous moderate convection continues across the western Atlantic, from 22N to 31N between 70W and 80W, near the cold front that is described in the GALE WARNING above. A dissipating stationary front is analyzed in the central Atlantic, and a weak trough is across the Canary Islands. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by high pressure centered north of the area. Scatterometer depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin, increasing to fresh to strong speeds in the western Atlantic. Seas are 8-12 ft north of 20n between 50W and 80W. Seas greater than 12 ft are described in the GALE WARNING above. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft in open waters. For the forecast W of 55W, Atlantic high pressure centered NE of Bermuda will shift E-NE and strengthen through Mon. Strong to gale-force SE to S winds occurring N of the Bahamas and W of 74W will shift slowly eastward through Sun, ahead of a cold front that currently extends from 31N78W to 27N80W. Scattered thunderstorms with frequent gusts to gale-force and frequent lightning are expected across the Straits of Florida, and the Bahamas today and will shift eastward through tonight. The cold front will exit SE Florida this afternoon, reach from near 31N70W to central Cuba on Sun morning, reach from 31N65W to the Windward Passage by Mon morning, then weaken considerably as it moves SE across the Atlantic and adjacent NE Caribbean waters through Tue night. Strong to near gale-force NE winds and large NE to N swell will follow the front early Sun through Mon. Low pressure will develop NW of Bermuda Tue and drift SE and weaken across the area waters through Wed. Large N to NW swell will spread across the waters E of 70W early Tue through Wed. $$ Mahoney