000 AXNT20 KNHC 231119 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Mar 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Heavy Rainfall: Elongated low pressure, supported by a deep layered upper level low pressure, extends from central Alabama to central Florida. A cold front extends from 1005 mb low pressure over central Alabama to near Tampico, Mexico. The surface low pressure is gradually tracking eastward across the NE Gulf of Mexico. Abundant moisture associated with this system is coupling with diffluent winds aloft to trigger scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, the north central coast of Cuba, and the northern Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters. These thunderstorms can become severe, capable of producing heavy downpours with low visibility, frequent gale-force wind gusts and possible waterspouts. These thunderstorms will produce 2 to 4 inches of rain across southern Florida through Saturday afternoon. Please refer to your local NWS Weather Forecast Offices at website: https://www.weather.gov for the latest advisories and warnings. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1032 mb high is centered just NE of Bermuda, and extends a broad ridge southwestward to the central Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the broad low pressure moving across the NE Gulf of Mexico and Florida is producing a broad zone of strong to gale-force SE to S winds to the north of 20N and west of 67W this morning. A cold front across the Gulf of Mexico is expected to exit into the western Atlantic by early afternoon. Near-gale to gale-force southerly winds ahead of this front are occurring in a band from the NW Bahamas N-NE to beyond 31N between 73W and 79W. Seas in this area have built to 14 ft along 31N this morning. As the front moves eastward this afternoon through Sun, these near- gale to gale-force winds will shift to north of 27N between 68W and 75W by tonight, and from 65W to 70W Sun. Seas will peak at around 16 ft along 31N. By Sunday afternoon, this areas of gale winds and high seas are expected to gradually subside through Sunday evening as the front steadily weakens. Mariners should monitor all the above hazardous marine conditions and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Gambia and southern Senegal, then reaches southwestward to 04N24W. The ITCZ extends from 04N24W to 02S29W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05S to 06N east of 30W, and from 05S to 03N between 30W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about heavy rainfall in the SE Gulf. There are two cold fronts across the northwestern and central Gulf of Mexico in association with a deep-layered 1005 mb surface low that is located central Alabama. Numerous strong to severe convection occurring over the SE Gulf earlier tonight has shifted eastward into the Bahamas and weakened, while scattered moderate isolated strong convection has developed from the Florida Bay to NW Cuba. Fresh SW surface winds are assumed to be occurring across this area, with seas of 5 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NW to N winds follow this second front across NW portions, where seas are building to 5 to 7 ft. In the far NE Gulf N of 27N E of 86W, seas are 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, the broad area of deep-layered low pressure across the north central and northeast Gulf will move NE across northern Florida and the SE U.S. today. A trailing cold front will exit the basin to the SE by this evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds will spill across the basin well behind the front today. High pressure in the wake of the front will quickly shift eastward late Sat night through Sun night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf Sun, ahead of the next cold front. Strong southerly winds will then shift to the central and eastern Gulf early Mon through Mon night as the new cold front enters the western Gulf Mon night. Fresh to strong N winds are briefly expected Tue behind the front over the W Gulf of Mexico. The front will slow and weaken mid-week from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong SE to S winds are occurring across the northwest Caribbean as deepening low pressure is moving E-NE across the NE Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, high pressure over the NW Atlantic extends a surface ridge southwestward to the central Bahamas, sustaining moderate to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, except for locally strong winds off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas prevail across the basin, with peak seas 8 to 9 ft offshore of NW Colombia. The basin is generally free of precipitation. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will shift E-NE through Mon. Fresh to locally strong SE to S winds occurring across the northwest Caribbean and Yucatan Channel will gradually diminish today as the Gulf of Mexico cold front reaches the Yucatan Channel this afternoon. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to near the Honduras-Nicaragua border Sun morning, then stall and dissipate from Hispaniola to NE Nicaragua on Mon. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop again over the western Caribbean late Mon through Tue, ahead of the next frontal system entering the Gulf of Mexico. Large N swell will reach the Atlantic Passages of the NE and E Caribbean late Tue and persist through Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the Gale Warning. The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered on a 1032 mb high located NE of Bermuda. An old stationary front extends from 31N47W to 23N54W where it transitions to a shear line that continues to the N coast of the Dominican Republic. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are north of this front to 70W. NE to E winds of similar speed are found between the Cape Verde Islands and the coast of Africa. Rough seas in this region peak near 14 ft offshore of Morrocco. Elsewhere, moderate NE to E winds prevail with moderate seas. For the forecast W of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will shift E-NE and strengthen through Mon. Strong to gale-force SE to S winds occurring N of the Bahamas and W of 72W will shift slowly eastward through Sun, ahead of a cold front. Strong thunderstorms with frequent gusts to gale-force and frequent lightning are expected across the Straits of Florida, and the Bahamas today and will shift eastward through Sat night. The cold front will exit NE Florida this afternoon, reach from near 31N70W to central Cuba on Sun morning, reach from 31N65W to the Windward Passage by Mon morning, then weaken considerably as it moves SE across the Atlantic and adjacent NE Caribbean waters through Tue night. Strong to near gale-force NE winds and large NE to N swell will follow the front early Sun through Mon. Low pressure will develop NW of Bermuda Tue and drift SE and weaken across the area waters through Wed. Large N to NW swell will spread across the waters E of 70W early Tue through Wed. $$ Stripling