000 AXNT20 KNHC 221031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Mar 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning and Heavy Rainfall: A surface low pressure center and a cold front are forming along the Texas coast this morning. The low pressure is forecast to track eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico today and then NE and inland across the southeastern U.S. Fri night and Sat. Fresh to strong SE winds developing offshore of Florida this morning will expand eastward in aerial coverage ahead of the cold front that will enter the western waters Sat afternoon, and reach from near 31N72W to central Cuba by Sun morning. Southerly gale-force winds are expected to develop across the northern waters, ahead of the front this evening through Sun. Strong to near gale NW to N winds and large NE swell will follow this front Sun before winds begin to shift N to NE. Additionally, widespread showers and strong thunderstorms, some potentially severe, are expected to develop across the SE Gulf of Mexico and Straits of Florida this afternoon and shift eastward across southern Florida, the Bahamas, Cuba and the adjacent waters Fri night through Sat evening. Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. In addition, please refer to bulletins and advisories issued by your local Meteorological Agency for information on the expected heavy rainfall in your area. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08.5N13W and continues southwestward to 02.5N30W. The ITCZ continues from 02.5N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 00N to 07N E of 24W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 00N to 05N between 24W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section regarding the upcoming heavy rain event. A warm front has developed from the SE Gulf to the central Texas coast, where low pressure of 1009 mb is forming. The pressure gradient between this boundary and higher pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds within 150 nm N of the front, where scattered moderate to strong convection is ongoing. Earlier scatterometer data showed winds to 30 kt within this zone of strong winds, with potentially higher winds in convection. Altimeter and buoy data also showed seas of 6 to 9 ft in this zone as well. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate mainly E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail. For the forecast, developing low pressure over eastern Texas is forecast to move E across the northern Gulf today then NE and inland across the southeastern U.S. Fri night through Sat. A trailing cold front will enter the NW Gulf this morning, reach from Mobile Bay to near Veracruz, Mexico Fri evening, and exit the basin to the SE late Sat afternoon. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front today, with fresh to strong northerly winds spilling across the basin well behind the front Fri night through Sat. Widespread showers and strong thunderstorms, some potentially severe, are expected across central through SE portions of the Gulf through this evening, ahead of the low center and the cold front. High pressure in the wake of the front will quickly shift eastward from late Sat night through Sun night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf, ahead of the next cold front. Strong southerly winds will shift to the central and eastern Gulf early Mon through Mon night as a cold front moves enters the western Gulf early Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad high pressure well N of the area, over the western Atlantic extends a ridge southward to a dissipating frontal boundary along 20N and into northern Hispaniola. Fresh trades are ongoing in the south-central Caribbean south of 13.5N, through the Windward Passage, and across the Gulf of Honduras, with mainly moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are moderate in the central and SW basin and across the Gulf of Honduras, with slight seas in the eastern and NW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure across the NW Atlantic will shift E-NE and strengthen through the weekend. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will develop across the northwest Caribbean and Yucatan Channel this morning as low pressure enters the NW Gulf of Mexico and tracks E. The low will move NE and into the SE U.S. Fri night through Sat, with an attendant cold front reaching the Yucatan Channel and the far northwestern Caribbean Sat afternoon. The front will then reach from the Windward Passage to the Honduras- Nicaragua border Sun evening, before stalling and dissipating on Mon. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over the western Caribbean late Mon through Tue, ahead of the next frontal system entering the Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the upcoming western Atlantic Gale warning and heavy rain event. A cold front extends from near 31N50W southwestward to 23.5N58W, where it transitions to a decaying stationary front to the northern coast of Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed moving eastward ahead and along the front north of 24N and east of 54W. Moderate to fresh NE to N winds are occurring north of the front to 70W. Moderate seas of 5 to 8 ft are noted over these waters. Broad high pressure dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic northwest of the frontal boundary, where fresh E to SE winds generally prevail W of 70W. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in mixed swell across this area. A strong 1034 mb high pressure system near the Azores continues to be the most prominent feature in the rest of the tropical Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in western Africa support fresh to strong NE to E winds north of 17N and east of 45W. Rough seas of 7 to 12 ft are found over these waters. Moderate trades and moderate seas are observed across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure centered along the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. will shift E-NE and strengthen through the weekend. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop E of Florida today, as low pressure tracks eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and then inland across the southeastern U.S. Fri night. Strong southerly winds will expand in coverage over the western waters, ahead of a cold front, increasing to gale-force across the northern waters Fri evening through Sun. The front will exit NE Florida Sat afternoon, reach from near 31N72W to central Cuba on Sun morning, from 31N64W to the Windward Passage by Mon morning, then weaken considerably as it moves SE across the NE Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic waters through Tue. Strong to near gale-force NE winds and large NE to N swell will follow the front Sun through Mon. $$ Stripling