000 AXNT20 KNHC 211044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Mar 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A surface low pressure center and a cold front are forecast to form near the coast of Texas late on Thursday. The low pressure is forecast to track northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to inland southeastern U.S. Fri night and Sat. Winds will expand in coverage ahead of the cold front that will trail from the low over the western waters, reaching from near 31N72W to eastern Cuba by late Sun. Gale conditions will be possible over most of the northern and central zones with the southerly winds Fri through Sat. Strong to near gale northwest to north winds and rough seas will follow this front. Widespread heavy rainfall on Fri and Sat will impact southern Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba and nearby waters. Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and plan their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. In addition, please refer to bulletins and advisories from the local Weather Services that are in the expected heavy rainfall impact areas for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 02N26W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 01S40W and to 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 27W-34W, and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 37W-44W. A large area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of the ITCZ from the Equator to 02N between 11W-31W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1020 mb is centered in the the NE Gulf at 28N86W. Its associated gradient is providing for moderate to fresh southeast winds are occurring southwest of a line from the northeast Yucatan Peninsula to southeastern Texas. Seas over these waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. Broken mid to high level clouds streaming eastward are over most of the basin. Isolated light showers are possible over the west-central Gulf. For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will shift eastward today as as low pressure develops near the coast of Texas. The low pressure is forecast to track northeastward along the Texas coast today, then eastward along or just inland the northern Gulf coast through Fri to inland the southeastern U.S. late Fri night. A trailing cold front will exit the basin through late Sat afternoon. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds are forecast ahead of the front, with fresh to strong northerly winds behind it. Widespread showers and strong thunderstorms, some potentially severe, are expected with the low center and the cold front. High pressure in its wake will also quickly shift eastward from late Sat night through Sun night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf. These winds shift to the central and eastern Gulf Mon and Mon night as a cold front moves across the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad high pressure over the western Atlantic extends southward to over the extreme northern Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh trade winds are over the central and southeastern Caribbean and also the Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba. Seas over these waters are 3 to 6 ft as noted in a couple of satellite altimeter data passes. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through Sat night, then diminish to moderate to fresh Sun and Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere over the east and central Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds will remain over the northwest Caribbean. Fresh to strong southeast to south winds will develop in the northwest Caribbean and in the Yucatan Channel by early Fri as low pressure and its attendant cold front move across the Gulf of Mexico. This front will likely reach the Yucatan Channel and the far northwestern Caribbean on Sat afternoon, then gradually weaken as it moves across the rest of the northwest Caribbean through the weekend, eventually stalling and dissipating. Fresh southeast winds develop over most of the western Caribbean Mon and Mon night, with the exception of fresh to strong winds near the northeast coast of Honduras. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a weak 1014 mb low that is north of the area near 33N54W, southwestward to 25N60W and to 23N64W, where it transitions to a stationary front to the northern section of Hispaniola. Numerous showers and thunderstorms moving eastward are noted ahead of the front north of 26N and between 50W and 55W. Moderate to fresh winds are within about 180 nm on either side of the front. Seas over these waters are 5 to 8 ft. Broad high pressure dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic west of the front, along with moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. A strong 1033 mb high pressure system near the Azores continues to be the most prominent feature in the rest of the tropical Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in western Africa support fresh to strong northeast to east winds north of 15N and east of 35W. Seas over these waters are 8 to 11 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5 to ft are present east of 50W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the northern part of the aforementioned cold front will shift E of the area by Fri morning, while the southern part will remain nearly stationary along the northern coast of Hispaniola. The front will dissipate E of the area on Sat. High pressure in the wake of the front will quickly move eastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop E of Florida as low pressure tracks northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to inland the southeastern U.S. Fri night into Sat. These winds will expand in coverage ahead the trailing cold front over the western waters. The front will reach from near 31N69W to the Windward Passage by late Sun night, and from near 31N64W to near the Virgin Islands by late Mon night. Gale conditions will be possible over most of the northern and central zones with the southerly winds Fri through Sat. Strong to near gale force northeast winds and rough seas will follow this front. $$ Aguirre