000 AXNT20 KNHC 201836 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Mar 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A surface low pressure center and a cold front are forecast to form near the coast of Texas late on Thursday. The weather system will move rapidly through the Gulf of Mexico on Friday. The forecast for Friday and for Saturday consists of widespread heavy rainfall that will cover the areas from the Bahamas to Cuba, in the Straits of Florida, and in the southern sections of Florida. Please, refer to bulletins and advisories from the local Weather Services that are in these areas, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 02N20W, crossing the Equator along 25W, to the Equator along 30W. The ITCZ continues from the Equator along 30W, to 01S37W, and to 02S44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the south of 09N14W 08N22W 04N30W 06N42W 06N54W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high pressure center is off the coast of SE Louisiana. Broad mostly moderate anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. Moderate seas are in the southern half of the area. Slight seas are in the northern half of the area. High pressure dominates the Gulf waters. This system will quickly shift eastward through Thu as a warm front and low pressure develop near the coast of Texas. The low pressure is forecast to track east-northeastward across the northern Gulf and to over the western Florida panhandle and the southeastern U.S. Fri and Fri night pushing a cold front across the basin. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected with the low center and attendant cold front. High pressure in its wake will also quickly shift eastward from late Sat night through Sun night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trade winds, and moderate seas, are in the south central sections, and in the SE Caribbean Sea. Moderate or slower winds, and slight to moderate seas, are in the remainder of the area. High pressure located to the NE of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through this morning. These winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds later today due to a weakened pressure gradient over the area. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through Sat night, then diminish to moderate to fresh Sun and Sun night. These winds may reach near gale force Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N54W to 25N60W, curving to SE Cuba. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 60 nm on either side of the front from 27N northward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 180 nm on either side of the front from 60W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 20N northward between 45W and 72W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the west of the cold front. A surface ridge passes through a 38N27W 1032 mb high pressure center, to 31N39W 29N42W, to 26N50W, 18N63W in the NE Caribbean Sea. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 10N northward, to the east of the advancing cold front. Strong NE winds are from 11N northward from 40W eastward. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 54W eastward. Moderate to fresh winds are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to rough seas are from 05N northward from 40W eastward, and from 26N northward from 60W westward. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extending from 31N54W to eastern Cuba will reach from near 31N52W to northern Hispaniola this evening, with weak low pressure forming along the northern end of the front. The weak low will be near 30N55W by early Thu with the trailing cold front extending to Hispaniola. By early Fri, the front will shift E of the area. High pressure in the wake of the front will quickly move eastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western half of the forecast waters as low pressure tracks northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to inland the southeastern U.S. Fri night and Sat. These winds will expand in coverage ahead of a cold front that will trail from the low over the western waters, reaching from near 31N72W to eastern Cuba by late Sun. Gale conditions will be possible over most of the northern and central zones with the southerly winds Fri and Sat. Strong to near gale northwest to north winds along with building seas will follow in behind the front. $$ MT