656 AXNT20 KNHC 200426 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Mar 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 01N26W. The ITCZ extends from 01N26W to 01N37W and to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 07N. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Strong upper level winds flowing across the northern Gulf of Mexico associated with subtropical jetstream result in widespread cloudiness and a few showers north of 25N. At the surface, a 1021 mb high pressure system centered near southern Louisiana dominates the basin. The weak pressure gradient supports moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf waters. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area through Wed. A low pressure is forecast to develop over the NW Gulf near the Texas coast late on Thu, then track northeast toward the southeastern U.S. by Fri night pushing a cold front across the basin. This next frontal system will bring increasing winds and seas across the Gulf waters, as well as widespread showers and thunderstorms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front is analyzed over the far NW Caribbean Sea. No deep convection is noted near this boundary or elsewhere in the basin. The rest of the Caribbean is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered near the Azores. The weak pressure gradient sustains moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the south-central and southeastern Caribbean Sea. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, high pressure located to the northeast of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through early Wed. The cold front that recently moved into the NW Caribbean has stalled and is weakening from central Cuba to just east of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This will weaken the gradient allowing for the fresh to strong trade winds to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds during Wed. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through Sat night, then diminish to moderate to fresh Sun and Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N61W and continues southwestward to the central Bahamas and the central coast of Cuba. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 23N and between 58W and 66W. Fresh to strong SW winds are found north of 28N and east of the cold front to 50W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Fresh northerly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are noted north of 28N and west of the cold front to 66W. The remainder of the western Atlantic west of the cold front is dominated by broad ridging resulting in moderate or weaker winds and northerly swell producing seas of 7-11 ft. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, a 1030 mb high pressure system positioned near the Azores is the main feature of interest. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in western Africa support fresh to strong NE winds north of 15N and east of 40W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are present south of 28N and east of 50W, along with seas of 5-8 ft. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from near 31N57W to east central Cuba by Wed morning. Weak low pressure may form along the front near 30N56W on Thu morning, with the front extending to eastern Cuba. The front will extend from near 31N50W to northern Hispaniola by Fri morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are north of 25N between 60W and 66W. High pressure in the wake of the front will quickly shift eastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western half of the forecast waters as low pressure tracks northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to over northern Florida, and to north of the area Sat and Sat night. These winds will expand in coverage as they shift eastward ahead of a cold front that will trail from the low over the western waters, reaching from near 31N72W to eastern Cuba by late Sun. Gale conditions will be possible over most of the northern and central zones with the southerly winds Fri and Sat. Strong to near gale northwest to north winds along with building seas will follow in behind the front. $$ Delgado