004 AXNT20 KNHC 181044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Mar 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front that extends from near 31N78W to inland northern Florida will progress eastward across the western Atlantic for the next few days. Southwest winds ahead of the front and northwest winds behind are forecast to reach near- gale to gale- force north of 29N between 73W and 77W by late tonight into early on Tue. Seas with these winds will be in the range of 9 to 12 ft. These near-gale to gale-force winds and very rough seas will shift eastward with the cold front to north of 29N between 63W and 67W by early Tue afternoon. As this front weakens Tue afternoon and evening, both winds and seas should gradually subside. Mariners are urged to monitor these hazardous marine conditions, and plan their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast near Freetown, and extends southwestward to near 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to below the Equator at 28W and continues to 01S35W to near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and south of the trough from 01N to 04N between 11W and 17W. Similar convection is occurring near and north of the ITCZ from the Equator to 03N between 27W and 47W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from northern Florida southwestward to 28N90W and to just southeast of the Texas and northeast Mexico border. A surface trough is analyzed to the south of front from 27N87W to 24N94W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along and to within 60 nm south of the front east of 92W and also 95W to just inland the coast of Mexico. Haze and smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is reducing visibility down to 4 nm across the west- central and southwestern Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends southwestward from central Florida to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh northeast to southeast winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present over the northwestern and south-central Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate northeast to southeast to south winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft seas are over the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico this morning and exit the basin Tue morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected behind the front tonight through Tue morning. Low pressure may form over the western Gulf on Thu, then tack east- northeast toward the NE Gulf by Fri dragging a cold front across the basin. Expect increasing winds and seas with this next frontal system along with possible numerous showers and thunderstorms. Light density smoke, originating from widespread fire activity in Mexico is over most of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A trade-wind regime continues across the entire Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong northeast to east to east winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are over the south-central and southeastern basin. Fresh with locally strong ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen at the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted near the Cayman Islands. Moderate to fresh northeast to east and east-southeast winds along with seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue. Afterward, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds as a cold front moves across the western Atlantic. This front push southward across the northwest Caribbean Tue, then reach eastern Cuba on Wed while dissipating. Pulsing fresh to strong winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about an upcoming Gale Warning. Two surface troughs are triggering scattered showers from 20N to 25N between 52W and 56W, and from 21N to 26N between 36W and 41W. Otherwise, broad high pressure related to a 1024 mb high center in the far eastern Atlantic near 31N27W is the main weather feature that is driving the wind regime in the Atlantic north of about 20N. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident south of a cold front off the Carolinas, north of 27N between 70W and the Georgia- northeast Florida coast. Fresh with locally strong SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found near the southeast Bahamas. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in moderate northerly swell exist north of 20N between 30W and the Florida east coast. Moderate to fresh, at times strong, north-northeast to northeast winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft dominate near the Canary Islands north of 21N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W, and also near the Cabo Verde Islands from 12N to 21N between the central Africa coast and 35W. For the tropical Atlantic from 04N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along with seas of 5 to 8 ft are present. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N78W to northeast Florida will reach from near 31N70W to the Straits of Florida Tue morning, from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Tue afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N56W to eastern Cuba by Wed morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected ahead and behind the front. Winds are forecast to reach minimal gale force tonight into Tue, affecting mainly the waters N of 27N. The front will move east of the area on Thu. High pressure in its wake will quickly shift eastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western half of the forecast waters as low pressure tracks northeastward along a coastal front near northeast Florida. $$ Aguirre