000 AXNT20 KNHC 171744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Mar 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING IN THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front will be along 31N70W 25N80W, in 36 hours, on Monday night. The forecast consists of W to NW gale-force winds, and rough seas, from 27N northward from the cold front westward. Expect on Monday night: strong NW winds, and moderate seas, elsewhere from the cold front westward. Expect also from 27N northward between the cold front and the line 31N62W 29N65W: strong SW winds and moderate seas. The current conditions are: broad mostly moderate anticyclonic surface wind flow, and slight seas, are from 70W westward. Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions, and plan their routes accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W, to the Equator along 32W, to 03S40W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 01N southward between 40W and 49W in the coastal waters and in the coastal plains of Brazil. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 06N southward from 40W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal boundary is in the U.S.A. coastal plains/in the coastal waters, from NE Florida to the Deep South of Texas. The part of the front that is in Florida is a cold front. This cold front is the boundary that will move into the SW North Atlantic Ocean by Monday night. The SPECIAL FEATURES gale-force wind warning is associated with the cold front. The rest of the boundary has been fluctuating from stationary, to warm, and to stationary again, during the last 24 hours or so. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, is from 27N northward from the Florida Big Bend westward. Fresh to strong easterly winds were within 150 nm of the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula during the late night and early morning hours. Moderate or slower SE winds have been in the Gulf of Mexico. Slight seas are in the Gulf of Mexico. Weak high pressure over the eastern Gulf will dissipate today ahead of a cold front forecast to move across the Gulf waters later today. Showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front over the NW Gulf. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico tonight, from near Tampa Bay to Veracruz, Mexico Mon morning, and exit the basin on Tue morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected behind the front tonight through Tue morning. A dense fog advisory is in effect for parts of the west-central Florida until noon today. In addition, oil platforms have been reporting dense fog in the NW offshore waters. Medium density smoke originating from widespread fire activity in Mexico is over the adjacent waters from Tampico to Veracruz with visibility 5 nm or less. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds are within 150 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W. Strong NE to E winds, and rough seas, are elsewhere from 15N southward between 68W and 78W...including in the Gulf of Venezuela. Mostly fresh to some strong easterly winds are from 68W eastward. Moderate E to SE winds are from 17N to 20N between 60W and 70W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are from 83W westward in the NW corner of the area. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 80W eastward. Mostly slight to some moderate seas are from 80W westward. An exception is slight seas of the eastern point of Honduras. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 17/1200 UTC, are: 0.20 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, and 0.14 in Guadeloupe and in Trinidad. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A ridge north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the east and central Caribbean through Tue. Then, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds as a cold front moves across the western Atlantic. This front will sink into the NW Caribbean Tue then briefly stall over eastern Hispaniola Tue night before lifting N of the area Wed evening. Pulsing fresh to strong winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning for Monday night in the SW North Atlantic Ocean. A surface ridge passes through a 32N32W 1022 mb high pressure center, to a second 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 29N42W, to 26N54W, to 25N73W, and beyond south Florida, into the east central Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 14N northward. A cold front passes through 33N60W, to 31N66W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are from 27N northward between 20W and 70W. Any convective precipitation is from 31N northward. Rough seas are to the east of the line 10N57W 13N49W 16N45W 18N40W 31N33W. Some exceptions are: moderate seas from 04N southward between 40W and 50W; and moderate seas to the south of the line 07N40W 07N25W 17N25W 15N17W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 270 nm on either side of the line 19N17W 18N25W 14N38W 11N55W. Mostly fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 25N southward from 50W eastward, and from 25N50W 19N60W southward. Fresh to strong SW winds are from 28N northward between 60W and 70W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front will move off NE Florida tonight, and reach from 31N70W to the Straits of Florida Tue morning, from near Bermuda through the central Bahamas by Tue afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N58W to NE Hispaniola by early on Wed. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected ahead and behind the front. Winds are forecast to reach minimal gale-force Mon night into Tue, affecting the waters N of 27N. The front will move E of the area on Thu. A ridge will build in its wake. $$ mt/gr