000 AXNT20 KNHC 170545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Mar 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Sherbro Island, Sierra Leone, then runs southwestward to 03N17W. An ITCZ continues from 03N17W to beyond 00N28W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the ITCZ south of 02N between 17W and 34W. No significant convection is near the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front curves westward from the Florida Big Bend area, passing just south of New Orleans to near Galveston, Texas. A surface trough is over the northwestern and west-central Gulf. Patchy showers are seen near these features. A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1015 mb high at the east-central Gulf to north of Veracruz, Mexico. Enhanced by cooler nighttime temperatures, moist southeasterly winds are causing patchy fog across the northwestern Gulf. Oil platforms in the area are reporting visibility of 2 nm. In addition, smoke and haze from agricultural fires across Mexico is reducing visibility down to 3 nm across the west-central and southwestern Gulf. Fresh with locally strong easterly winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas are evident at the northeastern and east- central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the 1015 mb high and related ridge will persist across the central Gulf through Sun. The stationary front is expected to begin drifting north and dissipate later tonight. A new cold front will move into the northwestern Gulf Sun evening and gradually shift south of the basin by Tue evening. Increasing wind and seas are expected behind this front Sun night through Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula during the nighttime and early morning hours tonight and Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A subtropical ridge along 26N continues to support a fair trade- wind pattern across the entire Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are present at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are seen at the Gulf of Honduras, and near the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the southwestern, and the rest of the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the aforementioned subtropical ridge will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central and portions of the southeastern basin through Tue. Afterward, these winds will become moderate to fresh through Fri, except for strong winds developing at night off Colombia. Fresh trade winds will pulse to strong across the Gulf of Honduras, Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Mon. A cold front will sink into the northwestern basin Tue evening, then stall from eastern Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula on Wed before dissipating Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is causing widely scattered showers west and southwest of the Canary Islands north of 23N between 21W and 28W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A vast subtropical ridge and its associated 1022 mb high near 30N41W is dominating both the western and central Atlantic. Gentle to moderate SE to SSW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist north of 20N between 55W and Florida/Bahamas. Gentle to moderate NNE to E to SE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate northerly swell are found north of 20N between 25W and 55W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in moderate NW swell dominate north of 15N between the Africa coast and 25W. To the west, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in moderate to large NW swell exist from the Equator to 20N between 25W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge will persist along 26N through Mon. A cold front will enter the offshore waters of northeastern Florida on Mon, then slide eastward and reach from near Bermuda through the central Bahamas by Tue afternoon. It should weaken while reaching from the central Atlantic waters to northern Hispaniola by Thu morning. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected north of 27N and ahead of the front Sun night through Tue night, while fresh to strong with possible gale-force NW to N winds will follow the front Mon night through Tue evening. High pressure will settle across the area Wed through Thu. $$ Chan