000 AXNT20 KNHC 161752 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Mar 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W, to the Equator along 28W, to 02S36W, 01S44W, to the coast of Brazil near the Equator along 49W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. The comparatively greatest concentration of precipitation is from 03N southward from 30W westward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is passing through the Florida Panhandle, into the north central Gulf waters, toward the middle Texas Gulf coast. The front becomes stationary offshore Texas, and it continues through parts of northern Mexico, just to the south of the Texas Big Bend, and to West Texas. Some areas of low clouds remain in the Texas coastal plains, between the middle Texas Gulf coast and the upper Texas Gulf coast, and into the SW quadrant of Louisiana. Comparatively fairer skies are in the rest of the coastal plains/ the coastal waters of the U.S.A. Gulf coast states. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 26N northward from 90W westward. Scattered to broken high level clouds are moving from the SW corner of the area toward the northeast. A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 28N83W, off the coast of the Tampa Florida metropolitan area. Moderate seas are from the Florida Big Bend westward. Slight seas are elsewhere. Mostly moderate winds, with some fresh winds, are in the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic will continue to move eastward across the Atlantic through Mon, yet maintain a lingering ridge westward over the western Atlantic and into the central Gulf through Sun. A weakening cold front has moved into the N Gulf waters this morning and will stall along 28N this evening then begin to drift N and dissipate tonight. A new cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sun night and gradually shift S of the basin by Tue evening. Increasing wind and seas are expected behind the front Sun night through Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and into the early morning hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Rough seas are from Hispaniola southward between 70W and the coastal waters of Central America from Nicaragua southward. Moderate seas are elsewhere from Jamaica southward from 83W eastward. The comparatively highest seas are rough, in the coastal waters of Venezuela and Colombia between 70W and 77W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas are in the NW corner of the area. The comparatively highest seas are off the coast of Belize. Slight seas are off the eastern point of Honduras. Strong broad surface cyclonic wind flow is from 15N southward between 68W and 78W. Fresh broad cyclonic winds are elsewhere from 80W eastward. Moderate or slower winds cover the remainder of the area. High pressure located over the central Atlantic waters will slide eastward and into the eastern subtropical Atlantic through Mon. The lingering ridge to the W will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central and portions of the southeast Caribbean through Tue. Afterward, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds and prevail through the remainder forecast period, except for strong winds developing at night off Colombia. Otherwise, fresh trade winds will pulse to strong speeds across the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola through early Mon. A cold front will sink into the NW Caribbean Tue evening then stall from eastern Cuba to the NE Yucatan Wed then dissipate Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N25W, to 26N30W 20N42W. A surface trough continues from 20N42W, to 19N51W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 27N northward between 23W and 32W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are elsewhere from 15N to 20N between 40W and 60W, and from 20N northward between 19W and 42W. Rough seas are to the north of 05N52W 05N40W 22N17W, and from 15N southward between 50W and 60W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 23N southward between 50W and 60W; from 18N southward between 37W and 50W. Moderate and fresh NE winds are from 21N southward from 37W eastward. Moderate to fresh SW winds are from 28N69W 31N50W northward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 28N52W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the areas that are to the west and to the northwest of the cold front/surface trough. High pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic will slide eastward and into the eastern Atlantic through Mon before becoming nearly stationary. A broad associated ridge will persist westward across the area through Mon. A cold front will enter the offshore waters of NE Florida early on Mon morning, reach from near Bermuda through the central Bahamas by Tue morning and move to central Atlantic waters by Thu morning. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected N of the Bahamas and ahead of the front Sun night through Tue night, while fresh to near gale- force NW to N winds will follow the front Mon night through Tue evening. $$ mt/ss