000 AXNT20 KNHC 160555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Mar 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: Decaying NW swell retreated north of 31N into the northeastern Atlantic earlier tonight. This has allowed seas south of 31N at the central Atlantic to subside below 12 ft. Refer to the Atlantic section at the end for more detail on the current sea state. South Central Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High near 30N57W and Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong winds at the south-central Caribbean and near the ABC Islands through Monday. Enhanced by local topography, these winds offshore from Barranquilla will peak at near-gale to gale-force tonight through early Saturday morning. Seas under these winds will reach 10 to 12 ft. Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and plan their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra Leone, then reaches southwestward to 03N19W. An ITCZ continues from 03N19W to beyond 00S30W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 80 nm northwest of the ITCZ. No significant convection is noted near the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal boundary is across the Gulf States, scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring south of this feature near the coast of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. Otherwise a surface ridge associated with the Bermuda High in the western Atlantic, extends southwestward from central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Moist southeasterly flow is coupling with cooler night time temperatures to create patchy fog offshore from Texas and Louisiana, visibility ranges from 1 to 2 nm. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present at the south-central Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the Bermuda High will slide eastward into the central Atlantic through Mon, while maintaining the ridge across the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are expected over the southern Gulf through early Sun. Winds northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to between fresh and strong during the nighttime and early morning hours. A cold front will move into the northwestern Gulf Sun night and gradually shift south of the basin by Tue evening. Increasing wind and seas are expected behind this front Sun night through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale Warning. The Bermuda High near 30N57W is sustaining a trade-wind regime across the entire Caribbean Sea. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Fresh with locally strong easterly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted at the Gulf of Honduras, south of Hispaniola, and near the Windward Passage and ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist near the Cayman Islands. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the Bermuda High will slide eastward across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic over the weekend. The lingering ridge will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central and portions of the southeastern Caribbean through Tue. Otherwise, fresh trade winds will pulse to between fresh and locally strong across the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through early Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches southwestward from just east of the Azores across 31N28W to 24N40W, then continues as a surface trough to northeast of the Lesser Antilles at 19N57W. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 120 nm northwest, and 70 nm southeast of the front. Patchy showers are present up to 100 nm along either side of the trough. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen north of 28N between 65W and the Georgia-northeast Florida coast. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted from 19N to 22N between 50W and the Bahamas. Otherwise, a 1022 mb Bermuda High near 30N57W is promoting light to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate northerly swell north of 19N between 50W/65W and the Florida coast. A 1018 mb high at the eastern Atlantic near 24N31W is supporting light to gentle winds and 9 to 11 ft seas in large NW swell north of 20N between 25W and 50W/65W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds and seas of 4 to 8 ft in moderate NW swell exist north of 20N between the Africa coast and 25W. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 19N between 25W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas dominate. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, the Bermuda High will slide eastward into the east-central Atlantic through Mon before becoming nearly stationary. A broad associated ridge will persist across the central and western Atlantic through Mon. Rough seas in northerly swell dominating east of 60W will gradually subside tonight. A cold front will enter the offshore waters of northeastern Florida on Mon morning and then reach southwestward from near Bermuda through the central Bahamas by Tue morning. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected north of 28N ahead of the front Sun night through Tue night, while fresh to strong NW to N winds will follow the front north of 27N Mon through Tue. $$ Chan