824 AXNT20 KNHC 152052 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Mar 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell has been moving through the central Atlantic Ocean. Large NW-N swell of 8-14 ft covers the waters NW of a line from the Canary Islands to the Cabo Verde Islands to 60W, highest near 31N37W. The swell is forecast to decay to less than 12 ft by early Sat. South Central Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A locally tight pressure gradient between high pressure ridging N of the Caribbean and lower pressure over northern South America will support brief gale force winds in the south central Caribbean tonight offshore of northern Colombia. Rough seas up to 12 ft will accompany the winds. Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and plan their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts and Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 14N13W to 00N28W. The ITCZ is S of the Equator. No significant convection is noted N of the Equator. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge extends across the northern Gulf coast with moderate SE-S flow across the basin, except gentle in the far NE Gulf including Apalachee Bay. Seas are 5-8 ft in the western half of the Gulf due to a prolonged SE fetch, and 3-5 ft in the eastern Gulf, except 1-3 ft in the far NE Gulf including Apalachee Bay. A cold front is moving through the Texas Hill Country extending back across northern Mexico, while a trough extends from central Georgia to near New Orleans, Louisiana. Scattered thunderstorms are across the SE near the surface trough and also near the front in Texas. For the forecast, the Bermuda high will slide eastward across the Atlantic through mon, yet maintain a lingering ridge westward over the western Atlantic and into the central Gulf through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are expected over the southern basin through early Sun. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each evening and into the early morning hours. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sun night and gradually shift S of the basin by Tue evening. Increasing wind and seas are expected behind the front Sun night through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the ongoing Gale Warning that is affecting the coastal waters of Colombia. Ridging extends across the SW N Atlantic north of the Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are in the central Caribbean, except strong to near-gale force in the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are found across the remainder of the basin. Seas are 7-11 ft in the south central to SW Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. No significant convection is found in the Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure centered just SE of Bermuda will slide eastward across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic over the weekend. The lingering ridge will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central and portions of the southeast Caribbean through Tue. Winds off Colombia will briefly pulse to gale-force tonight. Otherwise, fresh trade winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong across the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola through early Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the Significant Swell event. High pressure of 1022 mb is entered just S of Bermuda to near Jupiter, Florida. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and 3-5 ft seas in mixed swell are found under the ridge. Moderate to fresh winds are S of 24N and W of 60W along with 5-7 ft seas, locally strong across the approach to the Windward Passage. An elongated surface trough, the remnants of a cold front, extends from 31N30W to near the N coast of Puerto Rico. A surface ridge is ahead of the trough from just N of the Canary Islands through 22N35W to 20N50W. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the open Atlantic waters, with significant swell as described above. For the forecast, high pressure centered just SE of Bermuda will slide eastward and into the east-central Atlantic through Mon before becoming nearly stationary. A broad associated ridge will persist westward across the area through Mon. Rough seas in northerly swell dominating E of 60W will gradually subside tonight. A cold front will enter the offshore waters of NE Florida on Mon morning and reach from near Bermuda through the central Bahamas by Tue morning. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected N of 28N ahead of the front Sun night through Tue night, while fresh to strong NW to N winds follow the front N of 27N Mon through Tue. $$ Lewitsky