000 AXNT20 KNHC 142326 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Mar 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large N to NW swell is propagating across the western and central Atlantic waters. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are generally north of 25N between 34W and 56W. This area of swell will subside and decrease in areal extent as it propagates to the northeast of the discussion area through late Fri. SW Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia and a 1022 mb high pressure between Bermuda and Hispaniola is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the south-central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of Colombia are providing an additional influence to support 30 to 40 kt NE to E winds near the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla during the night time hours tonight and Fri night. Associated seas are likely to peak to 12 ft during this event. Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 02S38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between 22W-35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A subtropical ridge extends to the Gulf of Mexico from a 1021 mb high that is centered near 30N84W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and low/trough system over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf waters W of 88W including the Yucatan Channel. Seas in with this winds are 3 to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds are present east of 86W, with seas 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic will continue to exert its influence across the Gulf waters over the next few days. Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast over the majority of the basin through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and early morning hours due to local effects. A weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf waters Fri and slide eastward. A stronger cold front will move across the area late this weekend into early next week, resulting in an increase in winds and seas behind the boundary. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the ongoing SW Caribbean Gale Warning. Aside from the gale force winds off Colombia, fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Fresh to localized strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-11 ft range in the south central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the broad subtropical ridge positioned north of the Greater Antilles will shift eastward over the next several days. The area of high pressure will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight and Fri night. Seas will peak near 12 ft during the strongest winds. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola through the upcoming weekend and then decrease slightly early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant Swell in the central Atlantic. A dissipating frontal boundary extends from 31N23W to 22N44W, then a surface trough continues from that point to 21N71W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are noted N of 29N between 38W and 52W. Behind the front, a 1022 mb high pressure is center near 30N73W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail W of 60W. Aside from the area described in the Special Features section above, seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail N of 10N between 28W-62W. Moderate to fresh trades and seas to 9 ft prevail S of 17N. Light winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the broad high pressure will persist across the area during the next several days. Rough to very rough seas E of 57W will gradually subside from W to E through Fri. The high pressure will shift eastward this weekend enabling a cold front to move into the NW waters early next week. Tightening pressure gradient behind the front will support fresh to strong winds late Mon into Tue off NE Florida and over the western Atlantic, north of 28N. Conditions will improve by midweek. $$ ERA