000
AXNT20 KNHC 132318
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Mar 14  2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2317 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large N to NW swell is propagating across the western and central
Atlantic waters. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are currently north of a 
line from 31N62W to 23N52W to 30N40W. The area of 12 ft seas 
will sweep eastward across the waters north of 23N between 35W 
and 57W through mid-week, then diminish in areal extent and 
shift northeast of the discussion area through late Fri.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between a 1007 mb low pressure over 
northern Colombia and a 1021 mb high pressure north of Puerto 
Rico is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the 
south-central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of Colombia 
are providing an additional influence to support 30 to 35 kt NE 
to E winds near the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla 
during the night time hours. Associated seas are likely around 
10 ft currently. Winds will pulse to gale-force each night 
through Fri night.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and 
plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas 
and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 11.50N16W to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues from 01N23W 
to 01S36W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
observed from 03S to 04N between the west coast of Africa and 
26W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough over the northeastern part of the basin is 
producing an area of scattered moderate convection from 24.50N 
to 29N between 86W and 89W. Outside of convection, gentle to 
moderate SE to S winds prevail west of 90W, with light 
to gentle E to SE winds east of 90W. Slight seas or less are 
found across the entire basin. 

For the forecast, ridging will persist across the Gulf waters 
through the week and into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds 
will increase to moderate to fresh speeds over the majority of 
the basin tonight through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong 
winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula 
each night and early morning hours due to local effects. A cold 
front may move into the NW Gulf by the end of the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale 
Warning. 

Aside from the Gale warning area, fresh to strong E winds and 
rough seas are over the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere east 
of 78W, moderate to fresh E winds and seas are present, while 
gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas are noted west of 78W.

For the forecast, broad high pressure centered north of the 
Greater Antilles will slide eastward over the next few days. 
This ridge will support fresh to strong winds across the south-
central Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force 
at night through Fri night. Seas will peak near 12 ft during the 
strongest winds. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong 
near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and S of 
Hispaniola through the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant Swell
in the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N30W to 23N49W and continues as a 
stationary front to near Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic. Fresh 
to strong W winds are observed behind the front to 62W north of 
29N. A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 26.50N64.50W north 
of the stationary front with light to gentle anticyclonic winds 
in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate W to NW 
winds are elsewhere west of the cold front. Ahead of the front, 
moderate SW winds are observed within 50 nm north of 27N with 
gentle or less winds extending to another 1019 mb high pressure 
centered near 21N35W. Moderate NE winds prevail south of 20N. 
Aside from the area of seas 12 ft or greater, rough seas cover 
the waters north of 19N between 51W and 67W, behind the front. 
Across the remainder of the basin, moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, broad ridging will prevail through 
the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds N of 29N and E of 
60W will diminish by Thu. Rough to very rough seas will 
gradually subside from W to E through the end of the week.  

$$ 
KRV