000 AXNT20 KNHC 130901 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Mar 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large N to NW swell is propagating across the western and central Atlantic waters. Seas of 12 to 19 ft are currently N of a line from 30N63W to 24N57W to 30N44W. The area of 12 ft seas will sweep eastward across the waters north of 25N between 35W and 65W through mid week, then will diminish in areal extent and shift northeast of the discussion area through late Fri. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia and a 1021 mb high pressure northeast of the Bahamas is supporting strong to near gale-force winds across the south- central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of Colombia are providing an additional influence to support 30 to 35 kt winds near the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla during the night time hours. Associated seas are likely around 12 ft currently. Winds will pulse to gale force each night through Fri night. Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 04S35W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are observed S of 06N and E of 27W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate winds prevail W of 90W, with light to gentle winds E of 90W. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range W of 90W, and 1-2 ft E of 90W. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through the week. Gentle to moderate winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds over the majority of the basin through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and early morning hours due to local effects. A cold front may move into the NW Gulf by the end of the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale Warning. Aside from the gale force winds, fresh to strong winds are over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere E of 80W. Gentle to moderate winds are W of 80W. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 5-7 ft elsewhere E of 80W. Seas of 2-4 ft are found W of 80W. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night through Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola mid week through the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant Swell in the central Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N33W to near 20N60W. Moderate winds are N of 26N within 60 nm east of the front. Fresh to strong winds are N of 28N W of the front to 60W. West of the front, high pressure is centered near 27N69W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere W of the cold front. Moderate winds prevail S of 18N. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere E of the front. Aside from the area of 12 ft or greater seas, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 21N between 55W and 70W, and N of a line from 21N55W to 30N35W. Elsewhere, seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will prevail through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds N of 29N and E of 65W will diminish by Thu. Rough to very rough seas will gradually subside from W to E through the end of the week. $$ AL