000
AXNT20 KNHC 120900
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Mar 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large NW swell is propagating across the western and Central
Atlantic waters. Seas greater than 12 ft cover the waters N of a
line from 30N72W to 27N64W to 30N51W, currently peaking around 20
ft near 31N between 60W and 67W. The swath of combined seas in
excess of 12 ft will reach as far south as 25N between 45W and 65W
by late today, between 35W and 60W north of 25N by late Wed, then
will diminish in areal extent and shift northeast of the 
discussion area through late Fri.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between 1008 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia and 1023 mb high pressure off the coast pf NE
Florida is supporting strong to near-gale force winds across much
of the south-central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of
Colombia are providing an additional influence to support 30 to 35
kt winds within 90 nm of the coast between Cartagena and
Barranquilla. Associated seas are likely 12 ft currently. Winds
will pulse to gale force each night through Fri night.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and 
plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic over the coast of Guinea 
near 10N14W to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to 04S36W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed 
from 02S to 07N between 06W and 31W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail west of the Yucatan peninsula as well as
over the SE Gulf. Gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in
the 4-6 ft range west of the Yucatan peninsula as well as over the
SE Gulf. Elsewhere, seas are in the 2-4 ft range. 

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters 
through the week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate 
seas will prevail through Wed, then winds will increase to 
moderate to fresh speeds over the west-central Gulf Thu through 
Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to 
the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and early morning hours
due to local effects. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale 
Warning. 

Aside from the gale force winds off Colombia, fresh to near- gale
winds are over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
winds are in the Windward Passage. Moderate winds are elsewhere E
of 80W. Mainly gentle winds are over the NW Caribbean. Seas are in
the 8-12 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 4-6 ft over
the north central Caribbean, 2-4 ft over the eastern Caribbean,
and 2-4 ft over the western Caribbean. 

For the forecast, high pressure building N of the area will 
support fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean. 
Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night through Fri 
night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant 
Swell in the western and central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N49W to E Cuba. Fresh to strong winds
are N of 28N within 60 nm east of the front. Fresh to strong winds
are N of 28N W of the front to 70W, reaching near gale force N of
30N. High pressure is centered off NE Florida near 31N79W. Light
to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to
moderate winds are elsewhere west of the front. Another cold 
front enters the discussion waters near 31N28W and extends to 
27N34W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 28N within 90 nm east of
the front. Moderate to fresh winds are N of 28N between the
fronts. Moderate winds are found S of 15N as well as off the coast
of Africa. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Aside from the
12 ft seas discussed above, seas greater than 8 ft cover the
discussion waters N of 25N between 55W and 75W as well as N of a
line from 18N56W to 30N24W. Seas of 8-9 ft are found off the coast
of Africa. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-7 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will continue to move 
eastward across the forecast waters through Wed while becoming 
stationary just N of the Greater Antilles. The front is forecast 
to dissipate over the same area on Thu. Strong to near-gale force 
winds and rough to very rough seas will accompany the front today,
mainly north of 27N. Winds will diminish from west to east into 
mid week as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. 
Combined seas in excess of 8 ft may linger east of 70W through mid
week due to associated northerly swell. 

$$
AL