000
AXNT20 KNHC 112343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Mar 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2316 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Residual N swell will still be big enough at the central Atlantic
to keep seas at 12 to 13 ft north of 28N between 35W and 58W
through this evening. This swell are expected to merge with the
next swell event described below on Tue. 

A deep 976 mb frontal low pressure is moving across Nova Scotia 
this afternoon. Storm-force winds associated with this low has 
generated very large, long-period NW swell southward across the 
western Atlantic. Seas north of 28N between 55W and 73W will 
continue to build and reach 12 to 18 ft by late this afternoon to
early evening. By late Tue afternoon, these seas are anticipated
to shift southeastward to near 25N between 45W and 68W, while 
peaking at 12 to 20 ft. On Wednesday, these seas should be near 
23N between 41W and 62W and starting to decrease to between 12 
and 18 ft. Afterward, a decreasing trend along with an eastward 
propagation will continue through Friday.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A large 1027 mb high pressure over the central and southeastern
US will build and move eastward into the western Atlantic over
the next several days. Tightening pressure gradient between this
high and a Colombian Low will support strong to near-gale NE
winds off the northwestern Colombia coast most of this week.
These winds will pulse to gale-force during the nighttime and
early morning hours tonight through Saturday. Seas under the 
gale- force winds will peak between 10 and 13 ft.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and 
plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Liberia, then runs 
southwestward to 02N20W. An ITCZ continues southwestward from 
02N20W to 01.5S26W, then turns westward to 02N38W. Widely 
scattered showers are noted near and south of the trough from 03S
to 04N between the west coast of African and 28W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1027 mb high over the
central US to a 1021 mb high at the western Bay of Campeche.
While a surface trough is depicted across the eastern Bay of 
Campeche. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 
4 to 6 ft are present across the eastern and south-central Gulf, 
including the Florida Straits and eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle
to moderate E to ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the 
rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters 
through the week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail through Wed, then winds will increase to 
moderate to fresh speeds over the west-central Gulf Thu through 
Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to 
the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and early morning 
hours due to local effects. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section about an upcoming Gale 
Warning. 

The southwestern end of a weakening stationary front reaches 
southwestward from central Cuba to near the Island of Youth to 
the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas 
of 6 to 10 ft are noted at the south-central basin. Moderate to
localized fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas exist at the 
north-central and southwestern basin, and near the ABC Islands 
and Yucatan Channel. Gentle ENE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft 
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure will build N of the area, 
supporting fresh to strong winds across the south central 
Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night 
through Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A 
stationary front extending from central Cuba to the Yucatan 
Peninsula will dissipate tonight into Tue. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about 
Significant Swells. 

A cold front extends from 31N56W to central Cuba. Another cold 
front reaches southwestward from the Azores across 31N31W to 
near 28N40W, then continues as a surface trough to 25N47W. 
Isolated showers are found up to 50 nm along either side of the 
front the second front. Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ 
section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Other than the Significant Swell area mentioned in the Special 
Features section, fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas at 7 to 
11 ft are present behind the first cold front. Fresh to strong 
southerly winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are found near the second 
cold front. A surface ridge related to a 1018 mb high near 
22.5N55W is supporting light to gentle winds and 6 to 10 ft seas
in large northerly swell exist from 19N to 28N between 44W and 
Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, a surface ridge extending 
southwestward from a 1024 mb high southwest of Portugal is 
promoting gentle to moderate NE to E to SE winds and seas of 7 to
10 ft in large northerly swell are evident north of 20N between 
the Africa coast and 35W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to
moderate NNE to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft at moderate N 
swell are noted from 10N to 20N between the central Africa and 
30W. For the tropical Atlantic, gentle with locally moderate NE 
to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate from the Equator to 20N 
between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds and 4 
to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder 
of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned first front will 
continue to move eastward across the forecast waters through Wed 
while becoming stationary just N of the Greater Antilles. The 
front is forecast to dissipate over the same area on Thu. Strong 
to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will 
accompany the front mainly north of 27N. Winds will diminish from
west to east into mid week as high pressure builds in the wake 
of the front. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft may linger east of 
70W through mid week due to associated northerly swell. 

$$
KRV