000 AXNT20 KNHC 100538 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Mar 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL... Large and long-period N swell, that is associated with a 993 mb 41N51W low pressure center and nearby gale-force to strong gale- force winds, will move southward, from tonight through Sunday. This swell is going to create sea heights that will range from 12 feet to 14 feet...rough to very rough seas. These seas will be in the central Atlantic Ocean, from 27N northward between 36W and 57W, from Sunday morning through late Monday morning. A deep frontal low pressure center is expected to be near Nova Scotia by Monday morning. This system is forecast to produce even larger, long-period NW swell in the western Atlantic Ocean. This swell will spread into the central Atlantic Ocean by Wednesday. Anticipate the sea heights to build steadily, and range from 12 feet to 19 feet, from 27N northward between 53W and 72W, by late Monday afternoon. These very rough to high seas will shift southeastward, and be from 25N northward between 42W and 64W, by Wednesday morning. The current conditions are: rough seas are from 05N northward from 50W eastward. Fresh NE to E winds are from 02N to 26N from 40W eastward. Moderate anticyclonic wind flow is from 26N northward between 20W and 40W. Mariners need to monitor this developing situation and plan their route accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains Liberia near 06N11W, to the Equator along 14W. The ITCZ continues to 03S20W, 02S28W, 04S36W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 04N southward from South America eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is passing through the Florida Big Bend, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the area near 19N96W, and inland to 21N99W in Mexico. Rough seas are to the west of the cold front, from the coastal waters of the Deep South of Texas to 20N off the coast of Mexico. Moderate seas cover the area from the offshore waters of the Florida Panhandle into the SW corner of the Gulf. Moderate to slight seas are from the cold front southeastward. Fresh to strong N winds are from the cold front northward between the Florida Big Bend and the upper Texas Gulf coast/SW Louisiana. Moderate or slower winds are from the cold front southeastward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in Florida from the Tampa metropolitan area to 30N between 80W and 83W. Similar precipitation is in the Atlantic Ocean from 30N northward between 72W and 79W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 27N northward between 67W and the Gulf cold front. Haze is being reported in the observations in the interior sections of the southern half of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and in the Yucatan Peninsula. Volcanic ash is in the air, from the volcano Popocatepetl. A cold front extending from N Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico will reach from S Florida to the Yucatan Channel Sun before stalling and dissipating over the Yucatan Channel Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. Conditions will improve early next week as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1018 mb Atlantic Ocean high pressure center is near 26N65W. A surface ridge extends from the 1018 mb high pressure center, to the NW Cuba. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 280 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia between the Mona Passage and Jamaica. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere from Jamaica southward from 80W eastward. Moderate NE winds are from the Mona Passage eastward. Fresh SE winds are within 180 nm of the coast of Honduras between 82W and 86W. Moderate SE winds are elsewhere in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate winds are in the SW corner of the area. Moderate to rough seas are from 17N southward between Puerto Rico and 80W. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 80W eastward. Slight to moderate seas are from 20N northward in the NW corner of the area. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 10/0000 UTC, are: 1.50 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. High pressure NE of the area combined with low pressure over Colombia will support pulses of fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the south-central Caribbean midweek, reaching near- gale force off Colombia Mon night. Fresh to locally strong trades will also prevail over the southeastern Caribbean tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba late Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 47W/48W from 16N to 28N. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 390 nm to the east of the trough. Mostly moderate to some fresh southerly winds are from 20N northward between 45W and 50W. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 32N31W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 10N northward from the trough eastward. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 26N65W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N between the trough and the Florida Straits. A cold front passes through 31N50W to 29N57W. The front is stationary from 29N57W to 31N67W. Most of the nearby precipitation is from the frontal boundary northward. Strong S winds, and moderate seas, are to the north of 31N73W 27N80W, with the approaching cold front. Fresh NE winds are from 01N to 10N between 40W and 48W. Moderate or slower winds, and moderate seas, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight and reach from Bermuda to western Cuba Sun night. The portion of the front north of 22N will continue to the east of the region Tue, leaving a weakening stationary front extending to the Windward Passage by early Tue. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will accompany the front mainly north of 24N, through the early part of the week. Winds will diminish from west to east into mid week as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft may linger east of 70W through mid week due to associated northerly swell. $$ mt/al