000
AXNT20 KNHC 080908
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Mar 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues from 01N22W to
02S34W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
S of 05N and E of 40W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to
fresh return flow is noted W of 86W, with light to gentle winds E
of 86W. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range W of 86W, and 1-2 ft E of
86W. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds are expected 
over the central Gulf ahead of the next cold front that is 
forecast to move off the Texas coast this afternoon. The front 
will reach from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by 
early Sat evening and will exit the area Sun night while 
weakening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough 
seas are expected in the wake of the front. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. Conditions will 
improve Mon and Mon night as high pressure build in the wake of 
the front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are off the coast of Colombia as well as in
the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly moderate to fresh winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range off Colombia and 4-6 ft
elsewhere E of 80W. W of 80W, seas are in the 2-4 ft range. 

For the forecast, high pressure NE of the area combined with the
Colombian low will support pulses of fresh to strong northeast
to east winds over the south-central Caribbean through Tue
night, and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Fresh to
locally strong trades will also prevail over the southeastern 
Caribbean through Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan 
Channel and western Cuba late Sun.  

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary is in the far NW portion of the discussion
waters. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the area. Fresh to
strong winds prevail over the waters E of 50W where the pressure 
gradient is tighter between a high pressure center N of the area
and lower pressure within the equatorial trough. Seas in this area
are in the 8-12 ft range in a mix of N and NE swell. W of 50W,
gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft prevail. 

For the forecast W of 55W, a frontal boundary over the NW waters 
will move across the northern waters through Sat, exiting the 
forecast region by early Sat evening. A stronger cold front is 
expected to emerge off the coast of northeast Florida Sat night. 
This front is forecast to reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba 
Sun night and from near 28N55W to the southeastern Bahamas by Mon 
night. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to precede this front. 
High pressure will build in the wake of this front. 

$$
AL