000 AXNT20 KNHC 080540 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Mar 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 03N17W, and to the Equator along 22W. The ITCZ continues from the Equator along 22W, to 02S33W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the east and to the southeast of the lin:e 09N13W 05N21W 03N32W, to 04N51W at the coast of South America. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High level clouds are from 22N northward. The clouds are moving eastward. Moderate seas are in the coastal waters, from Louisiana to 20N at the coast of Mexico. Slight seas are elsewhere. Moderate to fresh SE winds are from 84W westward. Gentle winds are elsewhere. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the central Gulf on Fri ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to move off the Texas coast Fri afternoon. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by early Sat evening and will exit the area Sun night while weakening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. Conditions will improve Mon and Mon night as high pressure build in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1034 mb high pressure center is in the Atlantic Ocean near 34N42W. A surface ridge extends from the 1034 mb high pressure center, to Cuba. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 15N southward between 65W and 73W. Fresh easterly winds are elsewhere from 16N southward between 64W and 74W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are in the remainder of the area that is from 80W eastward. Fresh to strong SE winds are within 60 nm of the coast of Honduras between 84W and 86W. Fresh SE winds are elsewhere from 19N southward from 82W westward. Moderate SE winds are in the remainder of the area that is from 13N northward from 80W westward. Mostly gentle to some moderate winds are in the SW corner of the area, from 13N southward from 80W westward. Moderate seas in general are from 80W eastward. The comparatively highest sea heights are from 16N southward between 64W and 78W. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. High pressure NE of the area combined with the Colombian low will support pulses of fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the south-central Caribbean through Tue night, and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Fresh to strong trades will also prevail over the southeastern Caribbean through Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba late Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 60W westward. A cold front passes through 31N75W to 27N82W in SW Florida. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 30N northward between 64W and 67W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 60W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward between 45W and 62W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 22N to 30N between 42W and 48W. A dissipating cold front passes through 31N09W to 25N19W, inland and in the coastal waters of Africa. Minimal precipitation is associated with this front. A 1034 mb high pressure center is near 34N42W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward between the Africa dissipating cold front and the western Atlantic Ocean cold front. Rough to very rough seas are from 27N northward from 30W eastward. Rough seas are elsewhere to the north of the line 31N53W 23N48W 05N47W 10N36W, 13N16W at the coast of Africa. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Strong E to SE winds are from 20N to 29N between 40W and 50W. Fresh to strong SE winds are elsewhere from 16N northward between 36W and 50W. Strong NE winds are from 17N to 26N from 37W eastward. Fresh to strong NE winds are elsewhere within 400 nm to 500 nm on either side of 26N15W 18N36W; and from 02N to 16N between 35W and 47W. Fresh winds are elsewhere from 50W eastward. Fresh SE winds are from 27N northward between 54W and 66W. Fresh NE winds are from 14N southward between 50W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front over the NW waters will move across the northern waters through Sat, exiting the forecast region by early Sat evening. A stronger cold front is expected to emerge off the coast of northeast Florida Sat night. This front is forecast to reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba Sun night and from near 28N55W to the southeastern Bahamas by Mon night. Scattered thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are likely to precede this front. High pressure will build in the wake of this front. $$ mt/al