000 AXNT20 KNHC 072326 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Mar 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 01S22W. The ITCZ extends from 01S22W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted S of 07N and E of 22W and W of 32W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from the Florida peninsula off the Ft. Myers coast. A trough extends off the Florida Keys to NW of the Yucatan. No significant deep convection is occurring today over the Gulf. An area of haze is present over the SW Gulf as seen in the GOES satellite imagery, being caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America. Winds are gentle to moderate across the Gulf with seas 2-4 ft. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient is over the area. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the central Gulf on Fri ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to move off the Texas coast Fri afternoon. The front will reach from near Apalachicola, in the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by early Sat evening, from near Fort Myers, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Sun, before exiting the area Sun night while weakening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. Conditions will improve Mon and Mon night as a ridge builds over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak north-south pressure gradient over the Caribbean is forcing fresh trades over the S central Caribbean and only gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 5-6 ft over the S central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean today. For the forecast, high pressure NE of the area combined with the Colombian low will support pulses of fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the south-central Caribbean through Tue night, and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the southeastern Caribbean will reach fresh to strong speeds at night tonight and are expected to generally continue through Sat night. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba late Sun. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends southwestward from 31N76W to the Florida peninsula near 28N80W. Winds are gentle to locally moderate on each side of the front with seas 4-6 ft. An upper- level trough between the SE United States and Bermuda is inducing scattered moderate convection north of 27N between 67W-72W. A surface trough extends from 17N49W to 23N47W southeastward of another upper trough. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 23N-30W between 43W-49W. Farther east, a weakening cold front extends from 31N10W to south of the Canary Islands near 27N15W, where it transitions to a dissipating cold front to 26N18W. Winds behind the front are fresh to locally strong northerlies. Elsewhere, the Atlantic is dominated by a 1033 mb high centered north of our area near 33N39W with ridging extending west- southwestward to the central Bahamas near 23N75W and eastward to Morocco near 30N00W. The moderate pressure gradient equatorward of the high/ridge is forcing fresh to strong NE to E trades east of 45W and fresh to strong E to SE trades east of 55W. A large NW swell is occurring north of 28N and east of 35W with seas of 12-15 ft. Elsewhere northeast of a line from 31N57W to EQ10W, seas are 8-12 ft in mixed NW swell and wind waves. Southeast of that line seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast, a cold front extends from 31N76W to central Florida. Winds ahead of the front have diminished to moderate to fresh speeds. The front will move across the northern waters through Sat, exiting the forecast region by early Sat evening. A stronger cold front is expected to emerge off the coast of northeast Florida Sat night, reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba Sun night and from near 28N55W to the southeastern Bahamas by Mon night. Scattered thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are likely to precede this front. High pressure will build in the wake of this front. $$ AReinhart