000 AXNT20 KNHC 071751 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Mar 07 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 01N22W. The ITCZ extends from EQ23W to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted east of 18W and south of 05N. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from the Florida peninsula near 27N83W to 26N88W, where it transitions to a dissipating stationary front northwestward to 30N92W at the coast of Louisiana. No significant deep convection is occurring today over the Gulf. An area of haze is present over the SW Gulf as seen in the GOES satellite imagery, being caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America. Winds are gentle to moderate across the Gulf with seas 2-4 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh southeast winds will develop over the western half of the Gulf today ahead of a cold front that is forecast to move off the Texas coast Fri afternoon. The front will reach from near Apalachicola, Florida panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by early Sat evening, from near Fort Myers, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Sun, before exiting the area Sun night while weakening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. Conditions diminish Mon and Mon night as high pressure from the Atlantic builds in over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak north-south pressure gradient over the Caribbean is forcing fresh trades over the S central Caribbean and only gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 5-6 ft over the S central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean today. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will support pulses of fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sun night and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the southeastern Caribbean will reach fresh to strong speeds at night tonight and are expected to generally continue through Sat night. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba late Sun. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends southwestward from 31N77W to the Florida peninsula near 28N80W. Winds are gentle to moderate on each side of the front with seas 4-6 ft. An upper-level trough between the SE United States and Bermuda is inducing scattered moderate convection north of 23N between 67W-73W. A surface trough extends from 14N47W to 24N45W southeastward of another upper trough. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 24N-30W between 45W-53W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N11W to the Canary Islands near 28N18W, where it transitions to a dissipating cold front to 28N30W. Winds behind the front are fresh northerlies. Elsewhere, the Atlantic is dominated by a 1034 mb high centered north of our area near 34N41W with ridging extending west-southwestward to the central Bahamas near 23N75W and eastward to Morocco near 30N00W. The moderate pressure gradient equatorward of the high/ridge is forcing fresh to strong NE to E trades east of 45W and moderate to fresh E to SE trades west of 45W. A large NW swell is occurring north of 28N and east of 35W with seas of 12-15 ft. Elsewhere northeast of a line from 31N57W to EQ10W, seas are 8-12 ft in mixed NW swell and wind waves. Southeast of that line seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds north of 30N and west of 68W ahead of a cold front that extends from 31N77W to 28N81W will diminish later today. The front will move across the northern waters through Sat, exiting the forecast region by early Sat evening. A stronger cold front is expected to emerge off the coast of northeast Florida Sat night, reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba Sun night and from near 27N55W to 24N64W and stationary front to the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba by late Mon night. Scattered thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are likely to precede this front. High pressure will build in the wake of this front. $$ Landsea/Rubio