000 AXNT20 KNHC 070530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Mar 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 03N20W and 02N28W. No ITCZ is apparent. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N southward from 50W eastward, and from 11N southward between 50W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is passing through southern Georgia, into the Florida Panhandle, beyond SE Louisiana. The precipitation that is accompanying this front is limited to possible rainshowers within 60 nm on either side of the front. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough passes through NE Florida, to the central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N to 29N between 80W and 87W, including inland in Florida. An upper level trough is moving from Florida eastward. Slight seas, and mostly gentle to some moderate winds, are everywhere. A Broad area of low pressure dominates most of the Gulf waters while Atlantic high pressure extends westward across South Florida and over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh southeast winds will develop over the western half of the Gulf tonight into Thu ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to move off the Texas coast Fri afternoon. The front will reach from the Florida panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico late on Sat, from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Sun, then exit the area Sun night. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1034 mb high pressure center is in the Atlantic Ocean near 35N44W. A surface ridge extends from the 1034 mb high pressure center, through central Cuba, and into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are within 135 nm of the coast of Venezuela between 61W and 64W. Fresh easterly winds are elsewhere from 17N southward from 80W eastward. Strong SE winds are from 16N to 18N between 84W and 86W, off the coast of Honduras. Moderate to fresh SE winds are elsewhere in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from 82W westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the area. Moderate seas are in the central one-third of the area, and in the SE quadrant. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. High pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will support pulses of fresh to strong northeast to east winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sun night and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the SE Caribbean will reach fresh to strong speeds at night tonight and Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is moving from Florida eastward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds are from 69W westward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong are from 25N northward from 70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 22N northward between 47W and 62w. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 23N to 27N between 49W and 63W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. A 1034 mb high pressure center is in the Atlantic Ocean near 35N44W. A cold front is along 30N/31N from 30W eastward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 30N northward from 40W eastward. Strong surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward between 34W and 56W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 20N northward from 34W eastward. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are in the areas that are bounded by the line 14N16W 03N35W, to the Equator along 47W, and the line 17N60W 20N49W 20N36W, to the coast of Africa along 22N. Mostly fresh to some strong SE winds are from 22N northward between 57W and 70W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are from 70W westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Rough seas are from 22N northward between 40W and 70W. Moderate to rough seas are from 17N to 30N from 24W eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and rough seas across the offshore waters N of 24N and east of 70W will continue to decrease overnight tonight. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds and building seas off north-central Florida, ahead of a cold front will gradually diminish by late Thu. The front will move eastward across the northern waters through Sat, and exit the forecast region on Sun. A second cold front is expected to emerge off the coast of northeast Florida Sat night and extend from near Bermuda to western Cuba Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are likely to precede the front. $$ mt/ja