807 AXNT20 KNHC 062347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Mar 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Guinea near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 02N27W. The ITCZ continues from 02N27W to 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the ITCZ from 05S to 05N between 14W and 37W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough stretches from the Florida Big Bend to 23N93W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of the trough axis to 22N, east of 87W. A weak pressure gradient across the basin is supporting light to gentle variable winds and slight seas west of 90W, while gentle to moderate winds from the S and W and slight seas are found across the basin east of 90W. For the forecast, broad area of low pressure dominates most of the Gulf waters while the Atlantic ridge extends across south Florida into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds will develop over the western half of the Gulf tonight into Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast Fri afternoon. The front will reach from the Florida panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico late on Sat, from near Ft. Myers, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Sun, then exit the Gulf region Sun night. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad strong high pressure is centered over the north-central Atlantic extends a ridge to just north of the basin. This is supporting the continuation of fresh to strong NE to E winds off the coast of Colombia and SE winds of the same magnitude over the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas basin- wide are slight to moderate, with peak seas at 7 to 8 ft in the south- central portion of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will support pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-central Caribbean through Sun night and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the SE Caribbean will reach fresh to strong speeds at night tonight and Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted off the Florida coast and through the Bahamas, N of 25N and W of 75W. This convection is occurring ahead of a surface boundary near the Florida- Georgia Bend. The presence of this boundary and a surface ridge to the west supports fresh to locally strong SE to S winds and moderate seas to 8 to 9 ft west of 65W. East of 65W, a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds are observed in an earlier scatterometer pass from 23N to 31N to 38W with rough seas in NE to E swell. Further east across the subtropical Atlantic north of 20N, surface ridging dominates with moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas. Over the remainder of the basin south of 20N, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and rough seas across the offshore waters N of 24N and east of 70W will continue to decrease through tonight. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and building seas off north-central Florida, ahead of a cold front, will gradually diminish by late Thu. The front will move eastward across the northern waters through Sat, and exit the forecast region on Sun. A second cold front will come off the coast of NE Florida Sat night and extend from near Bermuda to western Cuba Sun night. $$ AReinhart