000 AXNT20 KNHC 052340 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Mar 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the north Gulf, potentially leading to locally higher winds and seas. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity that is affecting mainly the waters N of 26N and E of 94W. A couple of buoy observations over the NE Gulf are reporting NE winds in the 30 to 35 kt range. This gale will end soon. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at web-site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W, then continues southwestward to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends from 01N24W to 01N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S to 04N between 19W and 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the north Gulf, potentially leading to locally higher winds and seas. Please, see the Special Features section above for more details. Outside of the Gale Warning area, the pressure gradient between lower pressure over the western half of the Gulf and a weak surface ridge covering the region E of 90W is supporting moderate to locally fresh SE winds over the eastern half of the basin. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, strong to gale force winds over the NE Gulf will diminish below gale force by this evening. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds are over the remainder of the central and eastern Gulf. Winds will gradually diminish tonight through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop Thu night in the central Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast Fri. The front will reach from the Florida panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico Sat, and from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered well N of the area combined with the Colombian low supports fresh to locally strong trades and 6 to 8 ft seas over the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras with seas to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except for light winds and seas in the lee of Cuba. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers. These patches of low level moisture are now more concentrated over the eastern Caribbean affecting the Windward Islands. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the SE Caribbean will reach fresh to strong speeds at night Wed and Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Earlier scatterometer data indicated fresh to locally strong NE to E N of 25N between 43W and 65W where seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds prevail across the remainder of the offshore forecast waters W of 55W with seas of 6 to 9 ft based on altimeter data. A surface trough is analyzed over the central Atlantic and extends from 24N42W to 15N45W. A few showers are near the northern end of the trough. Fresh to strong SE winds are along the northern portion of the trough trough and light to gentle NE to E winds are noted in the southern trough. Seas are 6 to 9 ft near the trough axis. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure located NW of the Madeira Islands near 33N24W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are seen under the influence of this system. Winds increase to fresh to strong speeds near the coast of Morocco where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Seas of 6 to 7 ft prevail across the waters E of 35W, except in the lee of the Madeira, Canary and Cabo Verde Islands where sea heights are 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and rough seas across the offshore waters N of 20N and east of 70W will gradually decrease tonight and Wed. Winds and seas will increase off NE Florida tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the coast of Florida Wed evening. The front will move eastward across the far northern waters through Sat, and move E of the area Sun. $$ AReinhart