000 AXNT20 KNHC 042341 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Mar 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A tight pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high pressure centered near 37N35W, and a quasi-stationary surface trough over the central subtropical Atlantic waters along 50W is supporting strong to near gale- force NE to E winds and 12 to 14 ft seas from 25N to 28N between 45W and 55W. The dominant wave period is 8 to 10 seconds, resulting in steeper waves which are particularly dangerous to smaller vessels. These hazardous marine conditions will persist across these waters through this evening. Afterward, winds and seas will gradually decrease through midweek. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 09N13W, then curves southwestward to 02N20W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 13W and 17W. There is no ITCZ presence based on the latest analysis, however a surface trough is analyzed S of the Equator between 20W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Platforms over the northwest Gulf are reporting fog and haze to 3 nm due to moist southeast flow over the region. The moderate SW flow and associated 3 to 5 ft seas are active between high pressure over the Carolinas and troughing over the southwest Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds will prevail over the central and eastern Gulf through Tue evening. Gentle to moderate SE to E winds will resume across the basin Tue night through Thu. By Thu night, fresh to strong SE winds will develop in the central Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast Fri. The front will reach from the Florida panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from the north- central Atlantic to the northern Caribbean. This ridge combined with lower pressure over northern Colombia supports a tight pressure gradient across much of the basin. Fresh to strong winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere, except slightly weaker between 80W and 85W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft away from the south-central Caribbean, except 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will support pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south- central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES Section for details about a central Atlantic Significant Swell Event. Other than the area mentioned in the Special Features section, between 60W and 75W, winds are moderate to fresh from the ESE and seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range, between 35W and 70W, north of 20N. A pair of surface troughs persist across the northern Bahamas and off northeast Florida. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active within 300 nm east of these features. Areas of fog are possible along the coast of northeast Florida. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of 35W. Farther east, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in northerly swell are evident east of 35W, with stronger winds along the coast of northwest Africa. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas across the offshore waters N of 22N and east of 65W will start to decrease tonight, with winds and seas then gradually decreasing over much of the area through the week. Winds and seas will increase off NE Florida Tue night ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the coast of Florida Wed evening. The front will then move eastward across the far northern waters through the end of the week. $$ Christensen