000 AXNT20 KNHC 041353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Mar 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A tight pressure gradient between a 1034 mb high pressure centered near 37N40W, and a quasi-stationary surface trough over the central subtropical Atlantic waters is supporting strong to near gale- force NE to E winds and 12 to 14 ft seas from 24N to 31N between 40W and 56W. The dominant wave period is 8 to 10 seconds, resulting in stepper waves which are particularly dangerous to smaller vessels. These hazardous marine conditions will persist across these waters through this evening. Afterward, winds and seas will gradually decrease through midweek. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, then curves southwestward to 02N21W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 02N between 35W and 40W. There is no ITCZ presence based on the latest analysis, however a surface trough is analyzed S of the Equator between 21W and 37W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough is analyzed in the central Gulf, otherwise, a fairly benign pressure pattern dominates the basin with mainly moderate SE winds, and 2 to 4 ft seas, highest from the Yucatan channel northwestward. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds will prevail over the central and eastern Gulf through Tue evening. Gentle to moderate SE to E winds will resume across the basin Tue night through Thu. By Thu night, fresh to strong SE winds will develop in the central Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast Fri. The front will stall over the far W part of the basin Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from the north- central Atlantic to the northern Caribbean. This ridge combined with lower pressure over northern Colombia supports a tight pressure gradient across much of the basin. Fresh to strong winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere, except slightly weaker between 80W and 85W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft away from the south-central Caribbean, except 1 to 3 ft in the lee of Cuba. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES Section for details about a central Atlantic Significant Swell Event. Other than the area mentioned in the Special Features section, between 60W and 75W, winds are moderate to fresh from the ESE and seas are in the 7 to 11 ft range, highest E of 65W. A pair of surface troughs are analyzed over the waters W of 75W, with scattered thunderstorms present N of 25N between 72W and 77W. Mainly light to gentle variable winds are present W of 75W, with 5 to 8 ft seas in ESE swell outside of the Bahamas. The eastern subtropical Atlantic remains under the influence of a surface ridge. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over NW Africa results in the continuation of fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft, reaching as far south as the Cape Verde Islands. In the tropical Atlantic, trades are gentle to moderate between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, and moderate to fresh between 20W and 40W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft primarily in NE swell across the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas associated with a surface trough over the central subtropical Atlantic waters will persist across the offshore waters N of 22N and east of 65W today. Afterward, winds and seas will gradually decrease over much of the area through the week. Winds and seas will increase off NE Florida Tue night ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the coast of Florida Wed evening. The front will then move eastward across the northern waters through the end of the week. $$ Lewitsky