000 AXNT20 KNHC 040603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Mar 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A tight pressure gradient between a strong 1039 mb high pressure centered to the southeast of Nova Scotia, and a quasi-stationary surface trough over the central subtropical Atlantic waters is supporting strong to near gale-force northeast winds and very rough to high seas of 12 to 15 ft north of 24N between 40W and 60W. The average swell period is 10 seconds, resulting in stepper waves which are particularly dangerous to smaller vessels. These hazardous marine conditions will persist across these waters through Mon. Afterward, winds and seas will gradually decrease through midweek. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near Bissau in Guinea- Bissau, then curves southwestward to 03N20W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 01N to 06N between 10W and 15W. There is no ITCZ presence based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough curves southwestward from the Florida Panhandle across the north-central Gulf to the northwestern Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up south of this feature in the central Gulf well south of New Orleans. Otherwise, much of the Gulf is dominated by a surface ridge extending west-southwestward from central Florida to just north of Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are present at the south- central Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will develop over the central and eastern Gulf tonight into Tue evening. Gentle to moderate SE to E winds will resume across the basin Tue night through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop in the central Gulf Thu night ahead of the next cold front which will move into the western Gulf Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad surface ridge extending southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N65W to near the central Bahamas. This feature continue to support a trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Convergent trades are triggering scattered showers across the eastern basin, including Puerto Rico and the Windward Islands. Latest ASCAT satellite altimetery indicates fresh to strong with locally near-gale NE to ENE winds along with 8 to 10 ft seas at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted at the Gulf of Honduras and just south of Hispaniola. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are evident at the lee of Cuba and south of the Windward Passage. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the aforementioned surface ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-central basin and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES Section for details about a central Atlantic Significant Swell Event. A surface trough runs southward from a 1018 mb low pressure off the South Carolina coast across 31N77W to the northwest Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 250 nm east of this feature. At the central Atlantic, a broad surface trough reaches northward from 21N49W through a 1015 mb low near 24N48W to 31N46W. Aided by a robust upper-level low near 27N47W, scattered moderate convection is found north of 22N between 39W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Other than the area mentioned in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft are found north of 20N between 40W and 76W, including the southeast Bahamas. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate E swell exist to the west, north of 20N between 76W and the Georgia-Florida coast, including the central and northwest Bahamas. For the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to E to SE winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft in large N to NE swell dominate north of 14N between the Africa coast and 40W, including the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 14N/20N between the central Africa coast and Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in moderate to large NE swell are evident. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and easterly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds and very rough to high seas associated with a surface trough and attendant low over the central subtropical Atlantic waters will persist across the offshore waters east of 60W through Mon. Afterward, winds and seas will gradually decrease over much of the area through the week. Winds and seas will increase off northeastern Florida by midweek ahead of the next cold front. The front will move off the coast of Florida Thu, and extend from near Bermuda to central Florida Fri. $$ Chan