000 AXNT20 KNHC 031000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Mar 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Tight pressure gradient between a strong 1041 mb high pressure centered to the SE of Nova Scotia, and a quasi-stationary surface trough over the central subtropical Atlantic waters is supporting strong to near gale-force NE winds and very rough seas of 12 to 17 ft N of 23N between 47W and 64W. These hazardous marine conditions will persist through Mon evening. The center of high pressure will move to the NE Atlantic waters late on Mon while weakening. This will result in a weaker pressure gradient that will allow both winds and seas to gradually diminish through late Thu. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from 11N15W then extends southwestward to 05N20W to 02N32W. Widely scattered moderate convection is present from 06S to 06N between 07W and 37W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure centered SE of Nova Scotia extends a ridge SW into the Gulf, supporting light to gentle E to SE winds and slight seas basin-wide. Seas are slight and up to 3 ft. Moist air moving over colder waters along the northern Gulf is resulting in patchy fog from Corpus Christi to Tallahassee, Florida adjacent waters. For the forecast, foggy conditions are expected to continue through late this morning. Otherwise, expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the central and eastern Gulf tonight into Tue evening, between high pressure over the Carolinas and a surface trough that will move across the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to E winds will resume across the basin Tue night through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong high pressure of 1041 mb to the SE of Nova Scotia extends a ridge S into the Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a 1010 mb low over NW Colombia continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the central basin, accelerating to near gale-force speed along the coast of Colombia. Seas over this region are 5-7 ft, except 8-10 ft over Colombia adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are ongoing over the E basin while SE winds of the same magnitude are over the far NW Caribbean, strongest in the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will support pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south- central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the end of the week. Fresh to strong NE to E winds in the north-central Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds tonight. Gentle to moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about a Significant Swell Event. Other than the area mentioned in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh E to SE winds are ongoing E of the Bahamas to 65W along with rough seas in the 8-10 ft range. West of 75W, winds are gentle to moderate from the SE with slight to moderate seas. East of the surface trough mentioned in the Special Features, and over the E subtropical Atlantic, a tight pressure gradient is present between a strong high centered just S of the Azores and a pair of troughs over NW Africa. This is resulting in fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas extending as far as 13N, including the Cape Verde Islands. Over the tropical Atlantic W of 40W, winds are gentle to moderate with seas to 7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, strong to near-gale force NE winds and rough to very rough seas associated with a surface trough over the central subtropical Atlantic waters will persist across the offshore waters east of 65W through Mon night. Afterward, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and rough seas to 11 ft will gradually diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Wed evening while seas subside below 8 ft late Thu. Otherwise, winds and seas will increase off NE Florida by mid week ahead of the next cold front expected to move across the region Thu through Sat. $$ Ramos