000 AXNT20 KNHC 011639 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Mar 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between a 1038 mb High off the Mid- Atlantic coast and a 1011 mb Colombian Low will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the south-central Caribbean into early next week. These winds will pulse to gale-force off the northwestern Colombia coast mainly during the nighttime and early morning hours tonight and Sat. However, an ASCAT pass late this morning reveals near-gale to gale force winds are ongoing off Colombia to 12N between 73W and 76W. Seas near and just downwind of these strongest winds are expected to reach 11 to 13 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A very strong high pressure of 1038 mb is well north of the area over the northern Atlantic just northwest of the Azores. A tight pressure gradient between this high and a broad surface trough across northwestern Africa is resulting in gale-force winds in the Meteo-France Marine Zone Agadir, near the coast of Morocco. These winds are forecast to persist through at least Sat morning. Please read the latest High Seas Warning issued by Meteo-France at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more details. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Winds and seas will increase today between high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast and a broad trough farther east over the central Atlantic roughly along 55W, north of 22N. This pattern will also support building seas, with wave heights of 12 to 16 ft, primarily in NE swell covering the waters north of 22N between the trough and 65W. Looking ahead, the high pressure north of the area will move northeast while the trough weakens through the early part of the week, allowing winds to diminish slightly and wind directions to veer more easterly. This will allow the swell to subside below 12 ft through late Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal borders of Guinea Bissau and Guinea, then extends generally southwestward across 04N20W to 02S41W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 06S to 05N, east of 36W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front extends from Cedar Key, Florida to a 1015 mb low pressure in the NW Gulf south of Sabine Pass. A weakening cold front extends south of the low to 24N95W, where it transitions to a trough and continues to near the Tampico, Mexico offshore waters. Scattered moderate convection is observed across the northern Gulf along the warm front north of 27N. Moderate to fresh SE winds are across the basin east of 95W, while NE winds of the same magnitude are ongoing west of the frontal boundary and low in the NW Gulf. Seas are moderate in the northern basin and slight elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will stall over the northern Gulf into Sat as the Low pressure lifts to the northeast over the area. Another low pressure area will form over north-central Mexico Sun, allowing the front to lift northward as a warm front over the northwest Gulf. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the central and eastern Gulf Mon into Tue, between high pressure over the Carolinas and a trough over the southwest Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warning. A tight gradient between a 1038 mb high off the Mid-Atlantic coast and a 1011 mb Colombian Low sustains fresh to strong NE to E winds outside of the Gale Warning area and moderate to rough seas across the central basin, including waters near the Windward and Mona Passages. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are seen across the eastern portions of the basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail for the NW portions of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, high-pressure building north of the area over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the central Caribbean and off Honduras, reaching gale force off Colombia tonight. Winds and seas will diminish overall in the early to mid part of the week, except fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse off Honduras and Colombia at night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about the Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic and the Significant Swell event over the central Atlantic. A cold front extends from 30N58W to 29N69W, transitioning to a stationary front that continues to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Mainly fresh NE winds and rough seas are behind this front. A strong Azores High extends a ridge that covers most of the eastern subtropical waters while a broad trough lingers over the central Atlantic subtropical waters. Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead of the trough to 36W, north 18N. A recent scatterometer pass reveals that fresh to strong NE to E winds are present across the basin north of 19N and east 45W, as well as, south of the Turks and Caicos islands into the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or less winds prevail. Rough seas are found northeast of a line that extends from 31N45W to 14N27W, with moderate seas elsewhere across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, expect increasing NE winds and building seas between the central Bahamas and Bermuda into early next week between high pressure north of the area and a broad trough between 55W and 60W north of 22N. Looking ahead, the trough will dissipate, and the high pressure will lift to the northeast, although fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will persist north of 25N and east of 65W into mid-week. $$ Nepaul