433 AXNT20 KNHC 010000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Mar 01 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean as noted in a scatterometer satellite data pass over that part of the Caribbean. The tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the south- central Caribbean into early next week. These winds will pulse to gale- force off the northwestern Colombia coast during the nighttime and early morning hours from tonight through early Sat morning. Seas near and just downwind of these strongest winds are expected to reach 12 ft each early morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information. Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Very strong high pressure of 1042 mb is well north of the area over the northern Atlantic just northwest of the Azores near 41N33W. A tight pressure gradient between this high and a broad surface trough across northwestern Africa is resulting in gale-force winds in the Meteo-France Marine Zone Agadir, near the Morocco coast. These winds are forecast to persist through at least Fri morning. Please read the latest High Seas Warning issued by Meteo-France at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the Guinea- Sierra Leone border near 08N12W and extends southwestward to 01N25W and to 01N33W, where latest scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and continues to 01N38W and to near 00N48W. Large clusters of numerous strong convection are noted southeast of the trough east of 17W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm either side of the trough between 24W-27W and within 60 nm north of the trough between 29W-33W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from central Florida to 27N88W and to 26N91W, where it transitions to a warm front to low pressure near 26N95W 1017 mb. A cold front extends from the low to near 20N97W. Overcast multilayer clouds with embedded areas of rain and scattered showers are north of the frontal boundary and low pressure west of about 90W. The pressure gradient between the front and strong high pressure to the north supports fresh to strong winds over the northern Gulf, where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by a weak high pressure ridge that stretches west-southwestward from South Florida to the central Gulf. The associated gradient is allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the weak low pressure in the western Gulf will move northeast out of the north-central Gulf Fri. In response, the eastern part of the front will retreat northward as a warm front, while the western portion will remain generally stationary into the weekend. The boundary will then dissipate over northern waters Sun. Strong northeast to east winds are expected north of the low pressure through tonight. Over the weekend, high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will build weakly into the basin, bringing fairly tranquil conditions to the basin for the start of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details about a gale warning for waters near the coast of Colombia. High pressure is north of the basin over the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong trade winds are over the central Caribbean, outside the gale warning area, south of 16N between 70W and 78W. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are over the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong northeast winds are the northern Windward Passage. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes show gentle to moderate northeast to east winds over the northwestern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh east winds are over the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 3 to 4 ft over the northwestern Caribbean, except in the Gulf of Honduras where seas are 4 to 6 ft. The highest seas of 8 to 12 ft are near the coast of Colombia, 6 to 8 ft dominate the remainder of the central Caribbean while seas of 4 to 6 ft are over the eastern Caribbean. Patches of low-level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow are over portions of the basin. Isolated showers are possible with these patches of moisture. For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the region will build southward and strengthen into Sun, causing fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean and Windward Passage to expand and dominate much of the central and eastern basin. Northeast to wast winds will pulse to gale- force nightly offshore Colombia through Fri night. Winds and seas will begin to gradually diminish over the eastern Caribbean Sun through Mon as Atlantic high pressure retreats to the northeast. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about a gale warning in the eastern Atlantic. A cold front is analyzed from near 31N72W southwestward to inland Florida near Fort Pierce. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are north of the front along with seas of 6-9 ft. To the southeast of the front, high pressure of 1025 mb is analyzed near 28N68W. A broad and rather weak ridge extends from the high to South Florida and the Greater Antilles. The gradient associated to the ridge is allowing for generally light and variable winds near it. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds are along the southern periphery of the ridge, especially to the south of 22N and west of 60W where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. A 1016 mb low is analyzed at 28N58W, with a trough extending south-southwest to 20N59W. An area of numerous showers and thunderstorms with observed frequent lightning is to the east of the trough from 22N to 29N and between 51W-55W. The low is being supported by a mid to upper- level low as seen on water vapor imagery near 27N57W. The low is appearing to cut-off from the upper flow pattern. It is dropping south-southeastward. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by strong high pressure of 1042 mb centered just to the northwest of the Azores. Outside of the gale force winds in the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds prevail north of 22N and east of 45W where seas are 9 to 12 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds along with seas of 4 to 7 ft are present over the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough that extends from the 1016 mb low near 28N58W will drift eastward through the weekend, with some weak low pressure centers possibly developing along it at times, inducing some fresh to locally strong N winds the west of the trough axis. The 1025 mb high center near 28N68W will continue shifting south and east tonight allowing for the cold front that is over the northwest forecast waters to move eastward over the northernmost waters. This front will move across the waters north of 28N through Fri, with some strong northeast to east winds behind it. Winds and seas will diminish beginning next week. $$ Aguirre/Mora