610 AXNT20 KNHC 291035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Feb 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure W of 60W and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the south-central Caribbean into early next week. These winds will pulse to gale- force off the northwestern Colombia coast, during the nighttime and early morning hours from tonight through early Sat morning. Seas near and just downwind of these strongest winds are expected to reach 11 to 14 ft each early morning. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for additional information. Eastern Atlantic Meteo-France Gale Warning: A large dome of 1044 mb high pressure is over the northern Atlantic near 43N40W. A tight pressure gradient between this high and a broad surface trough across northwestern Africa is causing fresh to strong northeasterly winds in the Meteo-France Marine Zone Agadir, near the Morocco coast. These winds are forecast to peak at near gale to gale-force from early Sat morning through late Sat afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Warning issued by Meteo-France at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Sierra Leone border near 09N13W and extends southwestward across 04.5N19W to 00.5N29W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest analysis. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 00W and 25W. Widely scattered moderate convection dots the waters from 00N to 05N between 27W and 51W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Big Bend Region near 29N83W to 26N94W to just S of Tampico, Mexico. Scattered light showers are occurring along the front W of 88W. The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by a weak surface ridge stretching west- southwestward from south Florida to the central Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail N of the cold front. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 5 ft seas are found at the central and eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front is expected to move slowly E-SE and stall along about 27N this evening, then drift N and gradually dissipate through Fri. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected N of the front through this evening. Over the weekend, high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will build weakly into the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section about an on-going Gale Warning. A strong surface ridge to the north of the Caribbean extends SW to south Florida and continues to promote a moderate to fresh trade- wind regime across the entire basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present at the south- central basin. Fresh with locally strong ENE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate the north- central basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are noted at the Gulf of Honduras and through the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 4 ft seas exist in the northwestern basin, except the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds with 4 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere within the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, he ridge N of the basin will begin to shift S today and strengthen across the western Atlantic tonight into Sun, causing fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean and Windward Passage to expand and dominate much of the central and eastern basin, as well as the Gulf of Honduras. NE to E winds will pulse to gale-force nightly offshore Colombia through at least Fri night. Winds and seas will begin to gradually diminish Sun through Mon as Atlantic high pressure retreats to the NE. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about a Meteo-France Gale Warning. A stationary front reaches southwestward from the north Atlantic across 31N58W to a 1018 mb low near 28N69W, then continues as a surface trough to 20N60W. The surface low is supported by a deep layered upper level cyclone that is producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection between 52W and 58W, from 23N to beyond 31N. Aided by upper-level wind shear, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident just north of the Cabo Verde Islands, along the leading edge of a trade-wind surge. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Strong high pressure of 1044 mb is center over the north central Atlantic and is promoting fresh to strong easterly winds across the Atlantic N of 18N between W Africa and 50W, where winds turn SE to SE ahead and into the mid Atlantic low/trough. Seas are generally 7 to 11 ft across this area E of 50W. Further S across the tropical Atlantic moderate ENE trades prevail, with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Further W, fresh SW winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are found north of 29N between 73W and the Georgia/northern Florida coast. Otherwise, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate easterly swell are present north of 23N between 60W and the Georgia-Florida coasts. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found S of 23N to the Greater Antilles, and extend through the Windward Passage, where seas are 7-8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, a central Atlantic trough is nearly stationary along 59W-60W from 20N to beyond 31N and will drift E through the weekend. The ridge from Bermuda to south Florida will begin to shift S today and allow a cold front to sink SE into the NW waters this morning. The front is expected to stall along 29N early Fri then drift N into the weekend to the W of 68W, while moving slowly SE across the waters E of 68W. Strong high pressure N of the front will induce freshening trade winds south of the front and strong NE to E winds across the NE waters Fri night through Sun morning, before diminishing. $$ Stripling