000 AXNT20 KNHC 290551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Feb 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Tight gradient between a strong ridge of high pressure near 28N and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the south-central Caribbean into early next week. These winds are going to pulse to between near-gale and gale-force just off the northwestern Colombia coast, during the nighttime and early morning hours from tonight through early Sat morning. Seas under the strongest winds are expected to reach 11 to 14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for additional information. Eastern Atlantic Meteo-France Gale Warning: A large dome of 1046 mb high pressure is over the northern Atlantic near 43N40W. Tight gradient between this high and a broad surface trough across northwestern Africa is causing fresh to strong northeasterly winds in the Meteo-France Marine Zone Agadir, near the Morocco coast. These winds are forecast to peak at near- gale to gale-force from early Sat morning through late Sat afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Warning issued by Meteo-France at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea-Sierra Leone border, then extends southwestward across 04N20W to 02N27W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near this feature from 01N to 06N between the Liberia coast and 25W. There is no ITCZ presence based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Panhandle, passing just south of New Orleans to near La Pesca, Mexico. Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 60 nm north of this boundary. The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by a surface ridge stretching west-southwestward from central Florida to south of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present behind the cold front. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 5 ft seas are found at the central and eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to just north of Tampico, Mexico on Thu, then stall and gradually dissipate through Fri. Fresh NE to E winds are expected north of the front as it weakens. Over the weekend, high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will build westward across the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section about an on-going Gale Warning. A strong surface ridge to the north near 28N continues to promote a trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present at the south-central basin. Fresh with locally strong ENE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate the north- central basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the Gulf of Honduras and near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist at the northwestern basin, except the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds with 4 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere within the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over the north- central Atlantic will strengthen further across the western Atlantic Thu afternoon into the weekend. In response, fresh to strong trades in the south-central basin and Windward Passage will expand and dominate much of the central and eastern basin, as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Winds and seas will begin to gradually diminish Sun through Mon as the Atlantic high pressure retreats to the northeast. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about a Meteo-France Gale Warning. A stationary front reaches southwestward from the north Atlantic across 31N58W to a 1018 mb low near 29N59W, then continues as a surface trough to north of the Leeward Islands at 21N63W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found near these features north of 20N between 56W and 61W. Strong divergent flow associated with a pronounced upper-level trough in the vicinity is coupling with convergent southerly winds to produce scattered moderate convection north of 21N between 51W and 55W. Aided by upper-level wind shear, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident just north of the Cabo Verde Islands, along the leading edge of a trade-wind surge. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh with locally strong SE to SW winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are found north of 29N between 75W and the Georgia/northern Florida coast, and near the southeast Bahamas. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to SE to S winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in moderate easterly swell are present north of 20N between 55W and the Georgia-Florida coast. For the central and eastern Atlantic north of 18N between the Africa coast and 55W, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to E to SE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft in large NE to E swell exist, including the Canary Islands. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 18N/20N between the central Africa coast and Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft in moderate to large NE swell are present, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas in moderate mixed swells prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, strong high pressure centered over the north-central Atlantic extends a ridge southwestward to southern Florida. This ridge will weaken modestly Thu and allow a cold front to sink southeastward to the east of northern Florida, passing 30N Thu morning. The front is expected to stall along 29N early Fri. During the weekend, the portion west of 68W will retreat northward as a warm front, while the portion east of 68W will move slowly southeastward as a cold front. Strong high pressure north of this frontal boundary will induce strong NE to E winds north of 26N and east of 65W Sat and Sun. $$ Chan