000 AXNT20 KNHC 280455 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Feb 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a 1037 mb high pressure located northeast of the Azores combined with lower pressures across NW Africa result in gale force northerly winds near the coast of Morocco that will persist through late Wed. Meteo-France is forecasting near-gale to gale force winds in the eastern portions of the marine zones Agadir, Tarfaya, and Canarias. Seas are peaking near 19 ft between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details. Caribbean Gale Warning: A 1035 mb high pressure centered south of Newfoundland will continue to move slowly northeastward into the far North Atlantic. However, another strong ridge will build late this week over the eastern United States. The pressure gradient between persistent low pressure in northwest Colombia and the associated ridge result in fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. Winds will pulse nightly to gale speeds off northwest Colombia through Fri. Seas with these winds are forecast to build to 12-15 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 00N23W. Isolated moderate convection is noted south of 04N and between 25W and 47W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong ridge over the NW Atlantic extends a ridge southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures across northern Mexico result in fresh to strong southerly winds across the NW Gulf waters, especially west of 90W and north of 22N. This was recently confirmed by a scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are found within 90 nm of the northern coast of Yucatan, along with seas of 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. No deep convection is evident across the basin. Scattered to broken high clouds streaming eastward are noted north of 26N and west of 85W. These clouds are due to a very pronounced southern jet stream branch that stretches from the eastern Pacific Ocean northeastward and eastward across the northern Mexico and and most of Texas. For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic extends a ridge SW across central Florida and westward into the western Gulf. The ridge will continue to shift E, allowing a cold front to move into the NW Gulf of Mexico Wed afternoon. Ahead of the front, fresh to locally strong southerly winds will prevail tonight over the Gulf W of 85W. Patchy fog is also possible ahead of the front offshore Texas. The cold front will sink into the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu, then stall from near Tampa Bay to just N of Tampico, Mexico, Thu night, before lifting N on Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning for the waters near the coast of Colombia. The strong high pressure north of the islands extends a ridge southward into the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in strong to gale-force easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean as discussed in the Special Features. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are evident in the north- central Caribbean waters, including the Windward Passage, and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-5 ft are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. No deep convection is noted in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, high pressure NE of Bermuda will slide east across the western Atlantic into late week, before building southward toward the basin for the end of the week. Fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean and Windward Passage will expand to dominate much of the central and eastern basin as well as the Gulf of Honduras Fri through the weekend as the ridge builds southward. NE to E winds will pulse to gale-force nightly offshore Colombia through at least Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for the Gale Warning in the NE Atlantic. A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N50W and continues southwestward to 25N59W, where it transitions into a dissipating stationary front to Hispaniola. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring near the frontal boundary. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are present west of the front to 70W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. The remainder of the SW north Atlantic is dominated by a ridge positioned south of Newfoundland. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over the central US support fresh to locally strong southerly winds 29N and west of 75W. Seas in the area described are 4-6 ft. Farther east, a surface trough is analyzed along 31W, from 21N to 31N. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. The rest of the basin is under the influence of a strong high pressure system NE of the Azores. Fresh to gale-force NE-E winds are evident north of 20N and east of 35W as described in the Special Features section. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present over much of the central Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a weakening stationary front extending from 28N55W to the N coast of the Dominican Republic will drift W through Wed and dissipate. High pressure centered NE of Bermuda will slide eastward across the western Atlantic through Wed night. A cold front will sink into the NW waters Thu, then stall Fri morning from around 28N70W to near Jacksonville, Florida, before lifting N as a warm front Fri and Fri night. E of 70W, the front will continue moving S-SE and bring strong NE winds across waters N of 23N and E of 65W this weekend. $$ Delgado