000 AXNT20 KNHC 241105 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Feb 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front has entered the western Atlantic overnight, and extends from near 31N76W to central Florida. Scatterometer wind data from 0200 to 0300 UTC depicted SW gale force winds ahead of the front across the northern waters, mainly north of 29N and west of 75W. Simultaneous altimeter data also measured seas of 12-15 ft across this area. Gale-force SW winds will continue within about 120 nm E of the front, and N of 29N through Sat afternoon, as the front moves E-SE. Rough to very rough seas in W swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far south as 24N on Sun. Strong W winds will spread across these same waters behind the front today through Sun morning before wind and seas begin to diminish through Mon. The front will reach from 31N59W to the Windward Passage by Sun afternoon then gradually stall and weaken from 24N60W to eastern Hispaniola Tue. Marine interests in the areas should plan accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from 11N15.5W to 02N26W to 00N36W. The ITCZ continues from 00N36W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 04N between 00W and 17W. Scattered moderate convection is noted about the ITCZ from 01.5S to 05N between 23W and 52W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving across the Gulf of Mexico early this morning, extending from just S of Tampa Bay to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico. Scattered showers are depicted between the front and 24N to the east of 87W. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are N of the front to the E of 93W, while gentle to moderate SW to W winds are ahead of the front over the SE basin. Seas of 4-7 ft are over the NE basin while 3-5 ft seas are ahead of the front. Over the western half of the basin seas are 2-5 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front is followed by moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas. The front will reach the SE waters this morning, and move southeast of the basin by Sat evening. Surface high pressure will build in the wake of the front late Sat through early next week. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow will develop over the western Gulf Sun night through Mon night, then expand into eastern portions Tue through Wed, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf early Wed night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA The pressure gradient between 1019 mb surface high SE of Bermuda and low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting moderate to fresh trades over the central portions of the Caribbean, moderate trades across the eastern basin, and locally strong winds along the coast of Colombia. Seas over these regions of the basin are in the 4-7 ft range. A weak pressure gradient is over the western part of the basin due to a cold front moving across the E Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida. This is resulting in light to gentle variable winds and 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the Caribbean waters within 90 nm of Colombia through the weekend, strongest at night. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean late this afternoon, reach from eastern Cuba to the Yucatan coast near 19N87.5W Sun morning, then sink SE and dissipate from Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras Mon. High pressure will strengthen across the western Atlantic Sun night through Wed and produce fresh to strong trade winds across central portions of the basin and through the Atlantic Passages. Gale- force winds are possible along the coast of Colombia Tue night and again Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information about the Gale Warning in effect over the western Atlantic. A 1019 mb high is centered near 28N56W while a cold front is moving across the western Atlantic, extending from 31N76W to central Florida. Ahead of the cold front a pre-frontal trough is producing a line of moderate convection N of 28N between 73W and 77W. Gale-force SW winds are occurring N of 29N ahead of the cold front along with 12-15 ft seas extending N of 28N between the front and 71W. Elsewhere E of the front to 64W and N of 25N S to SW moderate to fresh winds and seas are 7-11 ft prevail. E of the center of high pressure, a stationary front extends from 31N49W to 23N56W with a trough extending from the tail of the front to the Leeward Islands eastern offshore waters. N of 27N and E of the front winds are fresh with seas 8-10 ft. The remainder of the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores high. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures near the Canary Islands continue to support fresh to strong NNE winds over the far subtropical eastern Atlantic, extending to the Cape Verde Islands. Rough to very rough seas of 8-15 ft are over that region, highest NE of the Canary Islands. For the forecast W of 55W, gale-force SW winds occurring within 120 nm E of the cold front will persist ahead of the front across the waters N of 29N and W of 67W, through this afternoon, as the front shifts E-SE. Rough to very rough seas in westerly swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far S as 24N on Sun. The front will reach from 31N59W to the Windward Passage by Sun afternoon then gradually stall and weaken from 27N55W to eastern Hispaniola Tue. Farther E, a weakening frontal trough extends from 23N55W to 16N60W, and will drift westward across the Leeward Islands during the weekend. High pressure will move into the western Atlantic Mon and Tue to produce fresh NE winds within 240 nm W of the stalling front. $$ Stripling