000 AXNT20 KNHC 240452 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Feb 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0452 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will emerge off the Florida coast tonight. Recent scatterometer data depicted SW gale force winds ahead of the front across the northern waters, mainly north of 29N and west of 66W. Gale force winds will prevail in the area tonight through Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas in W swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far south as 24N on Sun. Strong W winds will spread across these same waters behind the front Sat through Sun morning before wind and seas begin to diminish through Mon. The front will reach from 31N59W to central Hispaniola by Sun afternoon and gradually stall and weaken from 26N55W to eastern Hispaniola Tue. Marine interests in the areas should plan accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from 11N15W to 03N24W to 00N36W. The ITCZ continues from 00N36W to 00N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04S to 03N between 24W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving across the Gulf of Mexico tonight, extending from the Florida Big Bend region to near Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers are depicted north of 24N and west of 91W. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are ongoing W of the front covering the western Gulf waters while gentle to moderate SW to W winds are ahead of the front over the SE basin. Seas 6-8 ft are over the NE basin while 3-4 ft seas are ahead of the front. Over the western half of the basin seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front is followed by moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas. The front will reach the SE waters on Sat morning, and move southeast of the basin by Sat evening. Surface high pressure will build in the wake of the front late Sat through early next week. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow will develop over the western Gulf Sun night through Mon night, then expand into eastern portions Tue through Wed, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf early Wed night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA The pressure gradient between 1017 mb surface high SE of Bermuda and low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting moderate to fresh trades over the central and portions of the eastern Caribbean with locally strong winds off the coast of Colombia. Seas over these regions of the basin are in the 4-7 ft range. A weak pressure gradient is over the western part of the basin due to a cold front moving across the E Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida. This is resulting in light to gentle variable winds and 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will return to the Caribbean waters within 90 nm of Colombia tonight and persist through the weekend, strongest at night. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean late Sat afternoon, and extend from eastern Cuba to the coast of Quintana Roo, Mexico near 19N87.5W Sun morning, then sink SE and dissipate from Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras Mon. High pressure will strengthen across the western Atlantic Sun night through Tue night and produce fresh to strong trade winds across central portions of the basin and through the Atlantic Passages. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information about the Gale Warning in effect over the western Atlantic. A 1017 mb high is centered near 28N61W while a cold front is coming off the NE coast of Florida tonight. Ahead of the cold front a pre-frontal trough is producing a line of strong convection N of 29.5N between 73.5W and 80W. Gale force SW winds are occurring offshore NE Florida N of 29N ahead of the cold front along with 8-16 ft seas extending to 27N and 69.5W. Between 65W and 69.5W winds are moderate to fresh S to SW and seas are 7-8 ft N of 25N. E of the center of high pressure, a stationary front extends from 31N53W to 23N56W with a trough extending from the tail of the front to the Leeward Islands eastern offshore waters. Ahead of the front winds are fresh with seas 8-10 ft. The remainder of the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores high. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures near the Canary Islands continue to support fresh to strong NNE winds over the far subtropical eastern Atlantic, extending to the Cape Verde Islands. Rough to very rough seas of 8-15 ft are over that region, highest NE of the Canary Islands. For the forecast W of 55W, gale-force SW winds are occurring offshore of NE Florida and N of 29N, ahead of a cold front forecast to move off the Florida coast before midnight tonight. SW gales will persist ahead of the front across the north waters, N of 29N and W of 66W, through Sat afternoon, as the front shifts E-SE. Rough to very rough seas in westerly swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far S as 24N on Sun. The front will reach from 31N59W to central Hispaniola by Sun afternoon and gradually stall and weaken from 26N55W to eastern Hispaniola Tue. Farther E, a weak stationary front extends from 31N52W to 16N60W, and will drift westward across the Leeward Islands during the upcoming weekend. $$ KRV