000 AXNT20 KNHC 231629 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Feb 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will emerge off the Florida coast this afternoon. Gale force SW winds are expected ahead of the front across the northern waters, mainly north of 29N and west of 66W, this afternoon through Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas in W swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far south as 24N on Sun. Strong W winds will spread across these same waters behind the front Sat through Sun morning before wind and seas begin to diminish through Mon. The front will stall from the central Atlantic to Hispaniola Tue. Marine interests in the areas should plan accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 02N23W to 04N29W. The ITCZ continues from 04N29W to 01.5N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N southward, east of 30W, with another area of scattered moderate convection noted south of 06N and west of 36W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the NW Gulf from 30N93W to 27N97W. Fresh SW winds and moderate seas are ahead of the front over the NE Gulf, while moderate NW to N winds and seas are present across the NW portions of the Gulf behind the front. Elsewhere south of 25N, moderate SW winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, the front will reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near Brownsville, Texas by midday, move over the southern Gulf waters on Sat morning, then southeast of the basin Sat evening. Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be expected behind the front with moderate seas. Surface high pressure will build in the wake of the front late Sat through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA A frontal trough crosses the Lesser Antilles near 15N61W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail across the basin east of 70W, becoming fresh across the southern waters of the Dominican Republic south to 14N. Slight to moderate seas are present, except higher in the Atlantic Passages due to moderate N swell. Moderate trades and seas extend across the south-central Caribbean, with fresh NE winds found off the coast of Colombia. Light to gentle E to SE winds and slight seas are found elsewhere across the NE Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the frontal trough will move slowly eastward and into the Tropical Atlantic waters today, then drift westward and dissipate on Sat. Fresh to strong trade winds will return to the south-central Caribbean tonight and persist through the weekend, strongest at night. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean late Sat afternoon and extend from eastern Cuba to the coast of Quintana Roo, Mexico, near 19N87.5W Sun morning, then sink SE and dissipate from Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras Mon. High pressure will strengthen across the W Atlantic Mon through Tue night and produce fresh to strong trade winds across central portions of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1017 mb high is centered just NE of the Bahamas near 29N68W. A 1011 mb surface low near 33N57W with a weakening cold front extends across the area from 31N56W to 27N57W, continuing as a frontal trough to 20N63W. East of this front, a stationary front extends from 31N54W to 20N57W, then a frontal trough continues to near 15N61W across the Lesser Antilles. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 26N, between the stationary front and 49W. A recent scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong S winds north of 23N between 50W and 55W. Rough seas are present east of the front to 50W and north of 20N. West of the front from 55W, gentle to moderate N to NW winds and rough seas dominated by N to NE swell prevail to 74W. Fresh to strong S to SW and moderate to rough seas are present from 74W to the east coast of Florida. Farther east, high pressure prevails across the waters N of 20N. Fresh to strong winds are noted from 13N to 26N between the west coast of Africa and 40W, with moderate to fresh E winds elsewhere south of 20N. Moderate seas generally prevail across this portion of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W,. the front will drift east, weaken to a frontal trough today, and drift westward toward the Leeward Islands on Sat. Winds and seas associated with this system will improve by Fri night into Sat. A strong cold front will emerge off the Florida coast this afternoon. Gale force SW winds are expected ahead of the front across the north waters, mainly N of 29N and W of 66W, this afternoon through Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas in westerly swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far S as 24N on Sun. The front will stall from the central Atlantic to Hispaniola Tue. $$ Nepaul