000 AXNT20 KNHC 231034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Feb 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will emerge off the NE Florida coast this afternoon. Strong SW winds will develop across the NE Florida near and offshore waters this morning, and will increase to gale-force this afternoon as the front exits the coast. Gales are expected ahead of the front, mainly N of 29N between 66W and 80W, Fri afternoon through Sat afternoon, as the front shifts E-SE. Rough to very rough seas in westerly swell will follow the front, with seas of 12 to 16 ft expected within the area of gales. Strong westerly winds will spread across these same waters behind the front Sat through Sun morning before wind and seas begin to diminish through Mon. Marine interests in the areas should plan accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends to 00.5S27W. The ITCZ continues from 00.5S27W to 00N42W to 00.5S49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 00W and 24W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 33W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered just NE of the Bahamas extends a ridge westward to the coast of NE Mexico. A cold front is across SE Texas and is approaching the Texas coast this morning. Anticyclonic return flow is found across the basin ahead of it, with fresh SW flow dominating the NE Gulf. Seas have subsided overnight across NW portions, where seas are now 5-7 ft. Seas across N central and NE portions are in the 4-7 ft range, and 2-4 ft elsewhere S of 25N. Low clouds and fog are restricting visibilities from Galveston Bay to Mobile Bay. For the forecast, a weak ridge extends from just NE of the Bahamas westward across the entire Gulf of Mexico, and will shift eastward ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas coast this morning. Fresh SW winds are ahead of the front over the NE Gulf. The front will reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near Brownsville, Texas by midday, move over the southern Gulf waters on Sat morning, then southeast of the basin Sat evening. Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be expected behind the front with moderate seas. Surface high pressure will build in the wake of the front late Sat through early next week, with strong southerly return flow developing western portions Tue through Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA A weakening Atlantic cold front extends through 20N57W southwestward across the central Lesser Antilles to 14N63W. Widely scattered weak convection is within 120 nm either side of the trough in the E Caribbean, to the east of 65W. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are seen across the basin east of 70W, becoming fresh across the waters of southeastern Dominican Republic. Seas are 3 to 5 ft there except higher in the Atlantic Passages due to moderate N swell. Moderate to fresh NE winds are found off the coast of Colombia with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere, with southerly winds opening up across the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, a 1017 mb high is centered NE of the Bahamas near 27N74W and extends a ridge westward across the Gulf of Mexico. The weakening cold front extending into the Lesser Antilles will move slowly eastward and into the Tropical Atlantic waters today then drift W and dissipate on Sat. Fresh to strong trade winds will return to the south-central Caribbean Fri night and persist through the weekend, strongest at night. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean late Sat afternoon, and extend from eastern Cuba to the coast of Quintana Roo, Mexico near 19N87.5W Sun morning, then sink SE and dissipate from Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras Mon. High pressure will strengthen across the W Atlantic Mon through Tue night and produce fresh to strong trade winds across central portions of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1017 mb high is centered just NE of the Bahamas near 27N74W. A deep layered upper level cyclone has produced a 1011 mb surface low near 30N60W. East of this low center, a cold front enters the area through 31N54W to the central Lesser Antilles. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 24N, between the front and 59W. Recent scatterometer data revealed fresh to strong southerly winds east of the front to near 50W. Rough seas to 10 ft are noted on either E of the front. West of the front, gentle to moderate N to NW winds prevail to 72W. Seas W of 60W are dominated by N to NE swell producing seas of of 8-11 ft. Fresh SW winds have recently developed offshore of NE Florida, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Farther east, high pressure prevails across the waters N of 20N and E of the front. Fresh to strong winds are noted from 15N to 28N between the west coast of Africa and 40W, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere E of 60W. Seas of 7-10 ft generally prevail there. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue to move slowly eastward across the Atlantic and weaken to a frontal trough today, then drift westward toward the Leeward Islands on Sat. Winds and seas associated with this system will improve Fri night into Sat. A strong cold front will emerge off the Florida coast this afternoon. Gale-force SW winds are expected ahead of the front across the north waters, mainly N of 29N and W of 66W, this afternoon through Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas in westerly swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far S as 24N on Sun. The front will stall from the central Atlantic to Hispaniola Tue. $$ Stripling