000 AXNT20 KNHC 221033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Feb 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A storm force low just N of the area near 34N67W will move NE, dragging a cold front across the waters. Southerly flow will increase to gale force east of the front briefly on Thu morning. Seas will build to 11 ft during the period of gale force winds. Winds will then diminish gradually through Fri night. Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front will emerge off the Florida coast on Fri. Southerly gale force winds will develop over the NE Florida offshores Fri and Fri night. Gales will continue through Sat as the front pushes eastward. Seas will build to 12 to 15 ft during the period of gale force winds and after. The front will dissipate in the central Atlantic late weekend into early next week. Winds will diminish by then, with seas subsiding through Mon night into Tue. All marine interests in the areas must be cautious and plan accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas that is issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends to 06N20W. The ITCZ begins near 06N20W and extends to 01S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 06N between 18W and 25W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered offshore the Florida Big Bend. Fresh to strong return flow, and 6 to 8 ft seas prevail over the western waters. Gentle to moderate winds and 2 to 3 ft seas are in the far SE Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 ft or less are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, surface ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will continue to shift eastward in response to a cold front approaching the western Gulf. Ahead of this front, fresh to strong southerly return flow can be expected in the western Gulf through this morning with rough seas. The cold front will emerge off the Texas coast tonight and continue sweeping across the basin through Sat. Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be expected behind the front with moderate seas. Surface high pressure will build in the wake of the front Sat evening through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A dying frontal boundary extends from SW Puerto Rico to the central Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong winds are in the Windward Passage, Mona Passage, and SW Caribbean, where seas are 6 to 8 ft south of 17N between 74W and 82W. Earlier scatterometer pass recorded strong winds offshore Nicaragua and south of 14N. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere W of the front, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted over the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, the front will continue moving eastward over Puerto Rico to the Anegada passage today before dissipating tonight. Fresh N winds and moderate seas will follow the front through Fri, including the Mona Passage and the Dominican Republic adjacent waters through Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds will return to the south-central basin by Fri night and persist through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the Gale Warnings in the western and Central Atlantic waters. A pronounced mid to upper level digging trough supports a nearly north-of-south-oriented stationary front that stretches from 31N64W to 28N64W, where it meets a 1011 mb low pressure center. A cold front continues south from the low to northern Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the cold front and within 240 nm of the stationary front. Earlier scatterometer pass revealed fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the frontal system, mainly north of 22N and west of 55W where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are between the boundary and 70W where seas are 5 to 7 ft. To the west of this system, a 1011 mb low pressure near 28N69W extends a cold front to the SW, reaching the southern Bahamas. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted between this system and the U.S. SE coast, where seas are 8 to 13 ft, with Buoy 41047 is reporting seas to 13 ft. An area of 12 ft seas is north of 29N between 68W and 73W. 12 ft seas should subside tonight. Farther east, high pressure prevails. Winds are fresh to strong from 13N to 24N between 19W and 40W. Moderate to fresh prevail elsewhere east of the fronts. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are from 12N to 24N E of 40W, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, as the cold front moves eastward, gale force southerly winds will briefly occur ahead of the front N of 29N between 55W and 60W this morning. Meanwhile, rough to very rough seas will continue propagating across the waters N of 20N through the end of the week. Seas of 12 ft and higher will continue N of 29N between 65W and 80W today. The cold front will extend from 31N60W to the Anegada Passage this evening and dissipate Fri. Winds and seas associated with this system will improve by Fri night into Sat. A strong cold front will emerge off the Florida coast on Fri. This system will bring southerly gale force winds to the NE Florida offshores Fri and Fri night N of 29N and E of 80W. $$ AReinhart