000 AXNT20 KNHC 211714 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Feb 21 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... The forecast for Friday morning consists of near gale-force to gale-force SW winds, and rough seas, from 29N to 31N between 74W and 81W. All marine interests who are in the areas must be cautious and plan accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W, to the Equator along 29W, to 02S41W near the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 43W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is to the south of the line: from the coast of Africa along 20N, 17N31W 10N45W 10N60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A 1027 mb high pressure center is in south central Alabama. Slight seas are everywhere. Broad moderate or slower anticyclonic winds cover the entire area. Some exceptions are for: fresh N to NE winds off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and in some parts of the Straits of Florida. A 1027 mb high pressure over the Florida Panhandle extends a ridge SSW that dominates the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will shift eastward by midweek in response to a cold front approaching the western Gulf. Ahead of this front, fresh to strong southerly return flow can be expected in the western Gulf tonight into Thu morning. Seas will peak near 9 ft. These winds and seas will diminish Thu afternoon as the cold front moves across the Gulf Thu night through Sat. Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be expected behind the front with moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The southernmost part of a cold front reaches the southern border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. A NE to SW oriented stationary front continues the border area, to 15N77W, and curving to the coast of Panama that is along 81W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are to the north of the stationary front. Moderate or slower easterly winds are to the east of the stationary front. Precipitation: broken low level to middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are within 120 nm on either side of the stationary front. A N-to-S oriented surface trough is along 65W/66W. Precipitation: broken low level to middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are within 120 nm on either side of the stationary front. Slight seas are from 70W eastward. Moderate seas are in much of the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. An exception is for rough seas near 12N81W, to the east of Nicaragua. Moderate to rough seas are in the SW corner of the area in general. Another exception is for slight seas in the coastal waters of NW Honduras. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 21/1200 UTC, are: 0.17 in Guadeloupe; and 0.12 in Kingston in Jamaica. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A cold front extends from Dominican Republic SW to Haiti where it transitions to a stationary front to western Panama. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front mostly off of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through early Thu morning. Winds will also pulse to strong in the Windward Passage through Thu morning. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will follow the front and affect the Mona Passage and the Dominican Republic adjacent waters this evening through Fri morning as the front moves across Puerto Rico before moving E of the Leeward Islands Thu evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Gale-Force Wind Warning, for parts of the Atlantic Ocean that are to the east of NE Florida, on Friday morning. A 1005 mb low pressure center is near 33N68W. An occluded front extends from the low pressure center to the 34N61W triple point. A cold front extends from 34N61W, through 31N62W, to the southern border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center to 21N74W in the SE Bahamas. Rough seas are from 27N northward between the surface trough and 74W. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward. Fresh to strong N to NW winds are to the west of the surface trough. Fresh to strong southerly winds are from 24N northward between 60W and 67W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the west of the cold front from 22N northward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 21/1200 UTC, are: 1.07 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. An upper level NE-to-SW oriented trough extends from the Canary Islands to 12N53W. is along 31N24W 25N28W 18N34W 13N46W 09N60W. Precipitation: broken low level to middle level clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 10N northward from 60W eastward. A surface ridge passes through 31N47W 29N52W 24N57W. A 1032 mb high pressure center is near 35N24W. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 600 nm to 870 nm on either side of the line: along 20N at the coast of Africa; 21N28W 16N42W 21N53W 21N60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Rough seas are from 12N to 25N from 30W eastward. Moderate to rough seas are elsewhere from 20N northward from 45W eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean that is from 60W eastward. Low pressure north of the forecast waters will continue to move northward away from the forecast waters. Fresh to strong winds will continue across the waters W of 65W through Thu as the low pressure moves farther from the area. Rough to very rough seas will propagate into the waters N of 20N through the end of the week. Seas of 12 ft and higher will continue N of 29N between 66W and 70W through today. The cold front associated with the low pressure will extend from 31N61W to Hispaniola this evening and from 31N54W to the Anegada Passage Thu evening. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected along this front through the end of the week. A strong cold front will emerge off the Florida coast on Fri, potentially bringing southerly gale force winds Fri into Sat. $$ mt/nr