125 AXNT20 KNHC 201543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Feb 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 30N71W. A stationary front extends from the low pressure center, just to the south of Bermuda. A cold front continues from the 1012 mb low pressure center, through the SE Bahamas and the Windward Passage, into the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center, to the NW Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida. The current forecast for tonight consists of gale-force NW to N winds, and rough to very rough seas, from 30.5N northward between 69.5W and 71W. Expect elsewhere from 29N northward between 64W and 74W: strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas. Expect in the remainder of the area from 28N northward between 64W and 76W: moderate to fresh winds, and rough seas in mixed swell. The gale- force winds will start to slow down during the early morning hours and through Wednesday morning. Expect strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas, everywhere to the west of the front during the next 48 hours or so. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are within 250 nm to the northwest of the line 31N60W 26N67W 20N73W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 20/1200 UTC, are: 0.57 in Bermuda; 0.03 in Nassau in the Bahamas; and 0.01 in Freeport in the Bahamas, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. All marine interests in the areas must be cautious and plan accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the southern coastal plains of Sierra Leone, to 03N10W 03N20W 01N31W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the south of the line: from the coast of Africa along 10N, 07N30W 05N40W 05N50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A 1026 mb high pressure center is in SE Alabama. Slight to moderate seas are in the SE corner, and in the far SW corner. Slight seas are elsewhere. Fresh to strong northerly winds have been moving through the Yucatan Channel. Broad moderate or slower anticyclonic winds cover the entire area. High pressure system over the SE United States extends a ridge across the Gulf of Mexico and will move eastward by midweek in response to a cold front approaching the western Gulf. Ahead of this front, fresh to strong southerly return flow can be expected in the western Gulf on Wed night. These winds will diminish Thu as the cold front moves across the Gulf Thu night through Sat. Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be expected behind the front with moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through the Windward Passage, to 15N80W in the Caribbean Sea, and to the coast of Panama along 81W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are in the coastal waters of eastern Honduras and all of Nicaragua. Fresh northerly winds are elsewhere to the west of the cold front. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are within 180 nm to the northwest of the front. Strong NE winds are within 120 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W and 77W. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere within 215 nm of the coast of Colombia. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are from 70W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas cover much of the Caribbean Sea. An exception is for rough seas in the coastal waters of Colombia, in the areas of the strong winds. Another exception is for slight seas in the coastal waters of NW Honduras. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 20/1200 UTC, are: 0.31 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A cold front extends from E Cuba to the Panamanian coast and will continue pushing east through Wed before weakening by Thu in the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to rough seas off Nicaragua and Costa Rica will follow the front through Thu morning. This system has loosened the pressure gradient across the Caribbean waters. This has decreased the areal coverage of fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean and is expected to diminish by Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the forecast for the gale-force winds for tonight. An upper level NE-to-SW oriented trough extends from the Canary Islands to 12N53W. is along 31N24W 25N28W 18N34W 13N46W 09N60W. Precipitation: broken low level to middle level clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 10N northward from 60W eastward. A surface ridge passes through 31N40W 28N53W 26N62W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 18N northward from 25W eastward, and from 16N to 22N between 40W and 50W. between 21W and 28W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow is between 60W and 70W. Mostly fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 60W eastward. One exception is for moderate NE winds from 14N southward between 20W and 30W. Rough seas are between 18W and 45W. Moderate to rough seas are from 10N southward between 45W and 60W. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. A 1012 mb low pressure located between the Bahamas and Bermuda will lift north of area tonight. Fresh to strong winds will persist today north and west of the low. As the low moves northward, it will deepen and bring brief gale force winds N of 29N between 70W and 74W tonight. Meanwhile, rough to very rough seas will propagate into the waters N of 20N tonight and spread south and east through the end of the week. Seas of 12 ft and higher will reach 29N tonight into Wed morning. The cold front associated with the low pressure will extend from 31N65W to Hispaniola on Wed morning and from 31N59W to the Anegada Passage Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected along this front through the end of the week. $$ mt/sd